So…with Hillary and Bill already deciding what to wear to her Inaugural Ball, some of us are wondering if the Senate's going to go Democratic at the same time. I'm not reckless enough to fantasize about the House turning blue but obviously, Republicans are quite fearful of losing the Senate.
And the question seems to be whether the likelihood of a Clinton victory will help or hurt Republicans running for the Senate. Will that depress G.O.P. turnout since those voters will be more inclined to think, "Why bother? I can just stay home and eat Pringles!" Will it depress Democratic turnout since those voters will think, "She doesn't need my vote. I can just stay home and eat Ritz Bits!" And how about the Republican candidates who can now argue, "You need more than ever to vote for me as a check against Hillary!"?
I looked over various pundits and pollsters this morning and came to a firm conclusion: Nobody has any idea.
It strikes me as another one of those many instances where the correct answer is "I don't know" but you don't get a lot of that because most folks want to sound like an expert at whatever they're talking about and if you're an expert, you're not supposed to say that. You have to say something so you say something and the discussion gets cluttered with a lot of blind guesses passed off as valuable insight.
"I don't know" is very often a valid answer. I've learned that if I reply "I don't know" to more questions, I significantly increase my chances of being right.
I also increase the number of people who are annoyed with me for not knowing something they hope I'll know. Often, they press me to give an answer even after I've already told them I don't know. Last night, someone asked me who was going to win the World Series and truly, I have no idea. I know the names of the teams playing and that's about it. I couldn't name a single player on either roster, couldn't tell you one single stat or fact about the match-up.
Still, this person said to me, "Come on. You're a smart guy." I said, "Not about this stuff."
He then said, "You've got good instincts." I said, "Flip a coin. Its instincts for this will be just as good."
He then said, "Don't you think the Cubs have a clear advantage?" I said, "The last time I paid attention to the Cubs, Ernie Banks was at Shortstop. I think John F. Kennedy was president."
I could have saved myself a few minutes if I'd just said picked one of the teams at random and said they were going to walk all over the other one but I was trying to be honest. And all I did was frustrate a friend who for some reason thought my opinion would give him a better sense of how the competition was shaping up.
Often when "I don't know" is the best answer you're going to get out of me, I let myself get pressured or I take the easy way out and give some worthless speculation that has all the gravitas of Magic 8-Ball. Sometimes though, I'm wise enough to say, "I'm afraid you're outside my area of expertise."
I really do have such an area but it's kinda narrow. Most things in this world fall outside it and even within my area, there are things I don't know as well as things that nobody knows. This, of course, does not stop most of them from giving answers.
How many people do this? I don't know. I also don't know if soaring numbers for Hillary are going to help or hurt the Democrats' chances for retaking the Senate. But at least I know I'm not alone in that. After reading all these different articles by people who claim to know, I know they don't have more of an idea than I do.