Here's another poll aggregator you can follow. It's the Talking Points Memo tracker and currently it has Hillary way over the 270 mark with 341 votes, Trump at 186 and one "too close to call" state — Arizona — with its 11 votes. If Hillary has a shot in Arizona — and she seems to also have a good one in Alaska — this is not a good sign for Donald.
I'm going to watch the debate in an hour…or maybe on a bit of a delay…but I'm not looking forward to it. This one was supposed to be about Foreign Affairs but I have the feeling it's going to be about Affairs, period. For the record, my horror at the prospect of Trump becoming president is based largely on my belief of what he'd do, not only with his direct actions (which I would expect would only benefit Donald Trump and folks in or above his income level) but also because of the empowerment that his election would bring to those among us who hate racial and religious minorities, as well as women and gays. I think America would be a very ugly place under a Trump presidency.
I also think Hillary Clinton is very much qualified for the job and that all or most of the tales of her supposed lying and dishonesty come from the same place as all those claims that there was incontrovertible proof that she had Vince Foster murdered, inarguable evidence that she committed multiple felonies in Whitewater, outraged demands for her jailing over Travelgate, etc. Not saying she'd perfect but accusations against her have a way of not living up to their hysteria. I don't like her more militant approach to Foreign Policy but I don't think I'd trust anyone who has had their name on a primary ballot in this election. (Bernie Sanders might have but he was too vague about everything outside the U.S. of A.)
So naturally, the recently-released tape of Trump and Billy Bush does not make me any more likely to vote against Donald. I think its main impact is that it gives Republicans who were looking for an excuse to abandon the Trump bandwagon a good jumping-off spot. No one can possibly be surprised that that's who he was a decade ago…or think that he's somehow changed since then.
I have two analogies in mind for all this, both from Watergate. There was a period there when we had a slow, steady drip of ugly revelations about Nixon and an awful lot of Republican office holders decided to distance themselves from him. It wasn't so much that they couldn't defend what had come out. It was that they were afraid of what would come out next week. There can't be a lot of current G.O.P. leaders who are confident that there aren't more ugly Trump tapes in our future or more difficult-to-spin tax forms that will emerge.
The other thought is from when the time was coming that Republicans in the House and Senate would have to vote on the Nixon impeachment. The electorate was split. A lot of Republican voters wanted him tossed out on his butt while other Republican voters demanded he be defended to the death. If you were a G.O.P. Congressperson or Senator running soon for another term, you stood to lose half your support (and therefore, the election) if you voted with Nixon and the other half if you voted against him. I think a lot of current reps facing close election battles have the same dilemma now.
Actually, the nice thing about that tape coming out is that the self-identified Evangelicals, who claim to always support the most moral, God-loving candidate who just happens to be a Republican who wants to protect the interests of the rich — you know, the way Jesus did — now have a problem. They've almost been able to pretend that Trump has ever read the Bible or even knows what's in it. What's on that tape will forever be a little harder to spin.
Going to get ready for the debate. I hope they talk about something other than why what someone did in the past makes them a bad person. Maybe, just maybe they can even squeeze in a little something about how to avoid Nuclear War or sending more U.S. troops off to fight pointless battles.