I doubt anyone is coming to this site today just to read what I think is going to happen in tonight's first debate between Hillary Clinton and You-Know-Who. If you are such a person, you're not going to find anything meaningful here and I doubt you'll find it anywhere. I have two predictions….
- This will be the most-watched Presidential Debate ever.
- Anything else can happen.
This whole election has been one unprecedented occurrence after another. Pundits can sit there and say, "Well, in eight of the last twelve debates, the candidate with the reddest tie has gained a 1.7% bump in the polls" but clearly when so much is happening that's never happened before, all bets are off.
Well, maybe I can eke out two more predictions…
- An awful lot of America is going to sit there, mimicking the facial expressions of opening night audience at Springtime for Hitler and thinking, "I can't believe anyone would vote for that person."
- An awful lot of America is going to sit there, mimicking the facial expressions of opening night audience at Springtime for Hitler and thinking, "I can't believe anyone would vote for either of those two people."
And I suppose there will be a lot about lying and fact-checking and who's tougher. As I've said here, I think "talking tough" is a false value, especially since it's so often unconnected to doing anything in particular or actually being tough. But a lot of folks out there don't care what a candidate says he or she will do. They just want someone in the Oval Office they can pretend is Daddy or maybe even Mommy.
I'm not sure if I'll watch live or if I'll wait 'til it's over. Sometimes, watching after makes it easier because it gives you a little emotional detachment. You're not sitting there wondering if the stage will blow up within the next ten seconds. Then again, you miss out on real-time Tweeting and blogging…and I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not. I'll see how I feel.
I already know one thing about this election that's real depressing, which is that even if Trump loses, Trumpism ain't going away. He'll get enough votes that his supporters will say, "We came close! All we need next time is to find a guy with the same views who doesn't lie so blatantly and doesn't come across as quite as much of a misogynist." A few months ago, some of us could imagine an outcome where Hillary not only won but did so by a wide-enough margin that the saner Republicans could seize control of their party. Now, it's getting harder to be confident of her winning at all.
Oh, I just thought of one more fairly-safe prediction…
- No matter who says what, after it's over (or even before it is), both sides will be out there saying their guy or gal won a smashing victory and totally humiliated their opponent.
Sometimes, I think that's the most depressing thing about these events — the fact that grown men and women will say anything in support of their candidate, hoping someone out there is stupid enough to believe it. There will be people out there lying about how the opposition candidate was lying. And then there will be lying about the lying about the lying…and lying about the lying about the lying about the lying about the lying…
Enjoy the show.