Politics is sometimes like a big chess game where you make your move after considering all the options you're leaving your opponent. You think you're setting him up to make the wrong move while he's thinking he's doing the same thing to you…and the winner is whichever one of you thinks more craftily ahead. One of the intriguing things about Mr. Trump is that he doesn't seem to be operating that way.
The temptation when he says something outrageous or announces something bizarre is to figure where he's going with it, how this is but one step in a Master Plan. But it also seems like there is no Master Plan; like Trump isn't thinking five steps or even one ahead. All he's out to do is fire up the crowd who comes to see him today and to dominate today's news coverage. It's clear he thinks he can say something newsworthy on Monday, back off it on Tuesday, reverse it on Friday…and pay no real price for it with his base.
So leave Trump out of this: Kevin Drum is speculating what will become of the Merrick Garland nomination if Hillary wins. We know what'll happen to him if Trump wins. Garland will have about as much chance of sitting on the Supreme Court as does Carrot Top. Trump will probably give the seat to some lawyer somewhere who will invariably rule for whatever position will allow businesses to make the most money.
But with Trump now looking like he might not break 200 in the Electoral College, I wonder what would happen if Obama announced that on October 1, he will withdraw the nomination of Judge Garland. In less subtle terms: Confirm him now or you're likely to get stuck with someone you'll like a lot less.
That would mean Obama reneging on some past promises but so what? He's not running for re-election and the folks who hate him already hate him. The folks who love him will love the position in which he's putting Senate Republicans who warn Hillary's going to appoint someone who somehow will single-handedly overturn the Second Amendment, make abortion mandatory and force everyone in the country to marry someone of the same sex.
No one believes Garland is that guy. They just know he's not another Scalia and that's what they want there.
I don't think Obama will do it. This is just one of those "Wouldn't it be interesting?" speculations. But those can be fun…and at least as productive as trying to figure out what Donald Trump is thinking. Or even if he is.