Bernie Sanders keeps vowing to fight all the way to the convention. Matthew Yglesias thinks he won't; that before it convenes, Sanders will face the reality of numbers, drop out of the race and endorse Hillary Clinton. That seems like the most likely scenario to me…though I do keep in mind that a lot of most likely scenarios have not happened with this election. I just can't imagine how Sanders can have any sort of effective future in politics if he doesn't do that…and he hasn't been running his campaign to become ineffective.
Then again, it might not be as neat as all that. The polls for California are still all over the place. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll has Clinton at 49% and Sanders at 47%, which is within the survey's margin of error…in effect, a tie. Okay — but even if Sanders wins California, he won't have more delegates than Clinton, nor will more Democrats have voted for him. His path to the nomination would still involve persuading the so-called "Superdelegates" to switch their allegiance from the candidate with the most delegates and the most votes from rank-and-file Democrats to the guy who finished second in both categories. Hard to imagine that happening.