Nate Silver thinks Donald Trump is going to have a hard time winning the 1,237 delegates he needs to have locked down if he's going to arrive at the Republican convention with the nomination sewed up like a package of Trump Steaks. As I understand it, the theory here is that he'll fall short after all the remaining primaries and caucuses but he might be able to make up the deficit by persuading — which I guess includes bribing — uncommitted delegates to support him. Even then, he might have to battle a floor fight over rule changes that could still deny him victory on the first ballot.
If it goes to a second ballot, it's a brand-new ball game. There will be delegates there pledged to vote for Trump on the first ballot who will then be able to vote for their real choice on the second. Some are saying there will be more Trump delegates there who really prefer Cruz or someone else than there will be non-Trump delegates who will switch to Donald at that point.
Some are also saying it'll wind up being None of the Above; that plans are being laid to slide Paul Ryan or someone else in. Such plans may well be under discussion but I doubt that's going to happen. The party might be able to endure all the Trump supporters feeling they'd been cheated…or all the Cruz supporters feeling they'd been cheated. But I doubt it could survive alienating both at the same time.
That is, unless they nominate someone who is universally adored. Obama didn't take my suggestion that he nominate Bob Newhart to the Supreme Court. I fear I'd be wasting my time to suggest Republicans bypass Trump and Cruz and all the other names mentioned and instead give the nomination to Dick Van Dyke.
But it would work and it would bind the nation together. Hillary and Bernie would probably drop out of the race before they'd run against the guy. Everybody loves him. No one could vote against him. And when President Van Dyke goes to deliver the State of the Union address, he could trip over an ottoman on his way to the lectern. Wouldn't that be infinitely better than any other option either party has at the moment?