Here at newsfromme.com, we believe that you can't watch the presidential election without watching the electoral college. When someone tells me that So-and-So "has momentum" or is a "breakthrough candidate" or anything like that, my question is "Which states will they carry?" Because rightly or wrongly, that's how we pick our presidents.
There are several sites that track the electoral college and one of the most-watched is Larry J. Sabato's. He has just posted what I believe is his first attempt to map how things are shaking out for 2016 and he's saying that if it's Hillary v Donald, it's an electoral landslide for Hillary.
Now, obviously, a lot can and will change…but some things almost surely will not. It's just about impossible that a Republican would win California and New York just as it's almost impossible that a Democrat would win Texas and certain states in the Deep South. Either party could nominate a walrus and probably keep its "safe" states. Sabato (and others who do this) keep a careful eye on seven key "swing" states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. Pennsylvania used to be on that list and in the last few elections, Republicans confidently predicted victory there but fell far short.
The seven collectively represent 85 electoral votes and at the moment, Sabato and his crew think they'd all fall for Hillary. Trump would have to sweep almost all of them to win. If he did, he'd have 276. He could afford to lose New Hampshire's four votes or the six from either Iowa or Nevada but not two of the three.
Is a Trump win possible? Absolutely. There's enough wiggle room in those seven states and maybe a few others to considerably change the picture…and a map like this can even help change that picture. Those in the G.O.P. who want to dump Donald are going to be waving copies of projections like this as the best possible reason to deny Trump the nomination. Why run a guy who doesn't seem to have a credible path to victory in November?