Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates to win the G.O.P. nomination in Cleveland in July. Will he have them or will he fall short, meaning there's room for another candidate to slip in and grab the prize? Over at Nate Silver's website, they can't say for sure. He might get it or it might be close. And if it's close, it might be close enough that he could persuade, bribe or arm-twist enough of the uncommitted delegates to make up the difference on the first ballot there. This is sounding more and more like a reality show.