Like a lot of you — including an amazing array of die-hard Republicans I know — I think Donald Trump would be a disaster as President of the United States. The problem would not just be what he'd do. It would also be the empowerment of that kind of politicking and of the aspect of Trump's candidacy that has the David Dukes of the world all excited. Which is not to say that everyone backing Trump is a racist. They aren't all…and believe it or not, I'm not convinced Trump really is. My impression is just that he's the kind of guy who'll say absolutely anything to win over supporters and at the moment, that's what seems to be doing it. (There was an interesting biography some years ago of one-time anti-segregationist and presidential candidate George Wallace. It said he really didn't believe any of the racist hatred he espoused. His sole interest was in attaining fame and power and that's what worked for him.)
I'm not sure if he'd be worse than Ted Cruz but Trump is a lot more interesting. On one perhaps-unhealthy level, I'm watching this whole unfolding drama as the first third-or-so of a movie that I can't stop watching. It's compelling in the same way that the current O.J. Simpson mini-series is compelling. I hate this story but I can't turn away.
The big difference, of course, is that we already know how the Simpson saga ends. Even as convinced as I am that Trump will never get his mitts on the presidency, I don't really know how the story plays out. It's just too unprecedented in too many ways. Will Trump get enough delegates that to deny him the nomination on the first ballot will mean rewriting the rules and giving him the chance to scream that he's being cheated? Will he have almost enough and the argument will be that because of that, he has to get the nomination? How serious are some in the party about stopping him and what kind of damage might they do to the party if they're really serious?
Who the heck would he name as his running mate? A guy who's running on the premise that he's not a career politician can't select a career politician…can he? Would he want to reinforce his outsider credentials that way or select someone with political experience to reassure anyone skeptical of a total insider? I really have no idea and I wonder if anyone does.
There's plenty of dirt to be flung Trump's way, some of it having to do with his marital and dating life, some about past Trump business ventures and the people who felt swindled. How much of that are Republicans willing to fling? And how much chance is there of a third-party candidate courting the votes of Republicans who don't like Trump? There are a lot of them. What might Trump do to ward off that possibility? Or if he feels he's been denied a nomination that was rightfully his, might he be a third-party candidate? (He's ruled it out and it doesn't seem likely…but he's done a lot of things he said he wouldn't do and a lot of things have happened that didn't seem likely.)
Will there be riots and if so, who'll be doing the rioting? Trump supporters or Trump opponents?
I guess what I'm getting is that with all that volatility out there, I sure have the feeling a lot of startling things are going to happen. A story that has had this many unexpected twists so far is not going to suddenly become predictable and stay that way until November. It just isn't.
Not long ago, Trump made his famous brag that his supporters love him so much, he could murder someone and not lose a vote. I don't think that's so. I have the feeling that one of these days, he's going to say or do something that will cause his popularity to take a big hit — not fatal but enough to make him think, "Hey, maybe I can't shoot someone…" And then we'll all wonder, "Why did that wound him when all those other excesses didn't?"
Yeah, I'm horrified at the prospect that this guy would get as close to the presidency as he is now. But I am kinda fascinated to see how this movie ends. I just know we've got a lot of surprises in store.