I'm going to do some posts here which in no way reference Donald Trump but here's something that's on my mind. I keep hearing folks who want to stop him from getting the Republican nomination — and these are mostly Republicans saying this — that either Cruz or Rubio should drop out so that the other one can pick up most of their votes. This sounds backwards to me.
According to Nate Silver, who counts these things as well as anyone, Trump is "just barely" on target to rack up the 1,237 delegates he needs to have to lock up the nomination before the convention. Silver estimates that at his current pace of winning about 46% of them, Trump will wind up with 1,276.
That's enough but it's not a landslide. It's 52%. Not a lot of safety margin there.
It seems to me that neither Cruz nor Rubio stands much chance of topping Trump in delegate count. The most likely scenarios whereby he doesn't become the nominee all involve him falling slightly short of 50% plus one. Are you with me so far?
Now let's say either Cruz or Rubio drops out and most of their followers flock to the other guy. I'm thinking some of those voters would go to Trump, especially if he looked unstoppable. Remember that part of his appeal is this "I always win" mantra he chants. There are Republicans who after eight years of Barack Obama just want someone in the White House who is "one of them."
So if either Cruz or Rubio drops out, doesn't Trump pick up some voters and therefore some delegates? And might those some delegates be enough to push him over the 50% mark?
There's a lot of "opposition research" (i.e., mudslinging) coming his way before the convention, even before Democrats take their best shot at him. Suppose it drives his total down to, say, 1230. That still makes him the frontrunner and some will argue that he deserves the nomination because of it. But that's not the same thing as if he shows up with 1,237. And if Cruz or Rubio withdrew, don't you think Trump would pick up some more votes? Enough to get seven more delegates? What am I missing here?
By the way: As you may have heard, Ben Carson is apparently out of the race. Last night, I captured this Tweet and forgot to post it. It made me chuckle…
