I spent about two hours (i.e., approximately 115 minutes more than I should have) today watching various talking heads on TV discussing the Cosby case. My conclusion is that "legal experts," as everyone seemed to be, aren't sure what's gonna happen — and I don't mean the final verdict. I mean the process to get to it.
Will Cosby's deposition in the civil suit, in which he admitted giving drugs to women before sex and having prescriptions for Quaaludes (but not using them himself) be admitted into the trial? Some said yes and some said no. Will other Cosby accusers be permitted to testify to try and establish a pattern of abuse and the repeated use of a modus operandi? Some said yes and some said no. Will this case end in a plea bargain out of court? Some said yes and some said no.
Once again, I am reminded of reporter Jack Germond's great line about the trouble with the news: "We're not paid to say 'I don't know' even when we don't know." It applies to pundits and "legal experts" as well.
On CNN, lawyer Thomas Mesereau, who represented Michael Jackson and Robert Blake seemed to stop just short of saying that since they were innocent, Cosby must be, as well. I wonder how many people actually think Jackson and Blake were innocent.
Listening to him, I thought: It's possible that if this case comes down to he says/she says, Cosby could get acquitted. I don't want to underestimate the power of being able to spend zillions of dollars on clever lawyers. Still, I can't imagine a scenario in which his lawyers get him off and (big AND) convince a whole lot of people that he isn't guilty of all or even any of the accusations against him.
O.J. Simpson's lawyers were able to keep him outta prison but that was about all they were able to do for him. Before the verdict, Simpson had a confidence that he'd be found Not Guilty and a fantasy that after he was, he could build back his celebrity and fortune. He was going to produce a movie about the murders from his point of view. He was going to do a big pay-per-view interview with Larry King hosting. He was going to write a book, et cetera, et cetera. All of these exploitations were going to net him millions and further convince the world that he was innocent…
…and none of them materialized. Not one. He settled for a few small money deals for projects that persuaded no one.
At the time of the verdict, polls said that something like 25% of the country still thought he didn't do it. He thought that there were millions to be made off that 25% even if their number didn't grow…but that it surely would. The verdict itself would convince many that he was framed and then his own story as he told it would convince even more. As it turned out, the 25% didn't grow. If anything, it shrank…and whatever number of people still thought he was an innocent man weren't about to spend a dime on the guy.
As I watched Bill Cosby shambling into and out of the courtroom today, I wondered what he thinks will happen. If he thinks his lawyers will keep him out of prison…well, he may be right. If he thinks suing his accusers will get them to shut up or win him damages, he's probably wrong. And if he thinks he's ever getting back even a sliver of his reputation and career…well, I'd say the odds of that are about the same as the 2017 inauguration of President Rand Paul. Maybe a bit worse.