I have a few friends who fear greatly that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. It's not so much that they're afraid he might win as that even if he loses, getting as far as the nomination will cause his brand of politics to become the new norm for at least the G.O.P.
I keep reminding these folks how far we are not just from final balloting but from the first balloting. Trump could ride high for months and then collapse when we get to the Iowa Caucuses. Or he could win Iowa and then collapse. It's happened before.
Nate Silver, who's pretty damn good at predicting this kind of thing, puts Trump's chances of becoming the Republican nominee at 2%. Two percent! I think Cosby's at three or four. And that's just The Donald's chance of being the nominee, not the 45th President of these United States. Here is Mr. Silver explaining why Trump will crash and burn.