Jeff Keller wrote to ask…
What's the deal with these Mentalist reruns in Letterman's old time slot? Late night isn't the place for that kind of thing and I'm worried that that lead-in will kill off James Corden's show, which I'm beginning to like a lot. Why didn't they move Corden up to 11:35 until Colbert is ready? My second choice would have been to air Letterman reruns and my third choice would have been to have guest hosts like they did to fill in between Craig Ferguson and Corden. Why aren't they doing any of that?
Well, first off, it's not just The Mentalist going into that time slot. There will also be Big Brother reruns and some original programming at that hour before Dr. Colbert takes up residence. Secondly, if you leave aside Letterman's last few weeks when his ratings were way up due to the big Grand Finale, Mentalist reruns are drawing about the same numbers he did…with a show that cost a lot more to put on.
Years ago, a fellow I knew in programming told me a theory he had. He was not involved in programming late night but if he'd ever gotten in there — this was at ABC — he planned to push to forget about talk shows and put on hour dramas instead. I'll try to explain his working premise here…
Late night is all about keeping people from going to bed. A lot of the "battle" between Jay and Dave was not about who could get more people to tune in at 11:35. It was who could get those viewers to stick around longer. During the time Dave was beating Jay, Jay was often getting more viewers from 11:35 to 11:50 (i.e., the monologue) and then Dave would dominate the next 45 minutes as Jay's audience went to bed or switched to something else, including Dave. When Jay overtook Dave, a lot of that was because Jay's viewers were just sticking around longer.
On a late night talk show, every time you conclude a segment, a chunk of your viewing audience turns in for the night. You might turn off a talk show halfway through because you have no interest in the second guest…and a pretty hefty portion of those watching Jay or Dave did that. On the other hand, if you watch a detective show halfway through, you're less likely to turn it off. It's unsatisfying to not find out whodunnit or to see the bank robbers get caught. Folks can say, "Let's watch the first part of Jimmy Fallon before we go to sleep." They're not as likely to say, "Let's watch the first part of CSI: Crime Scene Investigation."
At least, that was his theory…and as some of you remember it was tried, pre-Letterman, at CBS. They scheduled cop show reruns under the blanket title of Crime Time After Prime Time. It wasn't a total failure but getting a hit talk show in there looked like a better use of the time. (My friend's answer was that CBS ran the wrong cop shows there — ones selected for their cheapness than their quality. "Talk shows fail when they aren't any good either," he noted.)
That friend is no longer in programming but the ratings the last week or so for The Mentalist would suggest that his theory is not wholly without merit. That will not stop The Coming of Colbert but if as some predict America just tires of all talk shows some day, we might see more of this, at least at 11:35. I have a hunch people would not commit at 12:35 to watching an hour show you kinda have to see through to the end. Then again, as DVR usage becomes more commonplace, the actual times that shows air become increasingly less significant.
(I would guess that if you put a show like that on at 12:35, most people would simply not start watching because they wouldn't want to commit to staying up until 1:35, whereas they can start watching a talk show at that hour and bail when they get sleepy. Originally, back in the Steve Allen days, that was the reason for putting talk shows at 11:30 but the country now stays up later than it used to. That's why TV stations no longer sign off for the night.)
I wouldn't worry about Corden. He's probably getting a big Get Out of Jail Free card right now. If his ratings were to tank — and they haven't yet — CBS would not blame him for being unable to hold an atypical lead-in. They'd just say, "Well, he's not compatible with the shows we have on now. Let's wait and see how he does after Colbert." Once the new Late Show debuts and goes through a few months to find its levels and get the bugs out, that's when Corden will face his real test.
A show in his slot is judged mainly by how well it maintains the viewing levels of the last fifteen minutes of the show before it. He's not expected to hold all of it but trouble is afoot if he loses most of it. If Colbert's show is a hit and Corden keeps a reasonable portion of the viewership he inherits each night, he'll be fine. Personally, I think that's the most likely outcome of the change. If Colbert flops — which I sure don't expect — then poor ratings for Corden will be the fault of his lead-in, not him. So he's in a pretty good position.
Why they didn't put on Letterman reruns? My understanding is that Dave didn't want that. He wanted his end to be clean…and he owns those shows.
Why didn't they move Corden up to 11:35 for the interim? Well, this is speculation but maybe Colbert didn't want that. What if James did great at 11:35 and then Stephen came on and didn't do as well? It may also be that CBS views Corden as long-range work-in-progress and wanted to keep him in the Minor League (so to speak) until he's more ready for the Big Time.
Why didn't they have several months of guest hosts? Probably because it would have meant assembling an entire staff and production crew and finding a studio and building a set. The guest hosts who followed Ferguson used his stage, his set, his crew, etc. Letterman's set-up though had to be dismantled right away to begin prepping for Colbert so that was not an option. Filling with guest hosts would have been a lot more expensive than running The Mentalist and whatever else they'll have on there. And it just may be that someone at CBS wanted to audition a return to late-night hour dramas just in case Colbert doesn't beat any Jimmies.