Mike Worden writes…
I disagree with you that Jeb Bush has a chance of being the Republican nominee in 2016. He can't win if he splinters the party even if it only splinters 70-30. What would you say would be the selling point for the non-crazies to get the crazies on board?
Well, I should first point out that I don't think any of my political-type predictions are anything close to infallible. They're just what I think at the moment and since I'm not a professional pundit and I don't have a huge audience, I don't think it's awful when, as I often am, I'm wrong. The Internet is way too full of people who think their hunches and deductions are blessed with some kind of Papal-like infallibility and I don't think that's true of anyone. It's certainly not of me.
That said, here's my thinking. There's almost no chance of the Republicans losing the House. I think there's very little chance of them retaining the Senate and I base that on looking at the particular seats that will be up next time…but I don't think the G.O.P. can admit that, certainly to each other and in many cases, not even to themselves. (One of the key differences between Republican and Democrats is that I think Republicans are always way too certain of victory and Democrats, way too uncertain.)
So I think the selling point of the G.O.P. to its various factions is going to be, "This is our chance for all the marbles." They fantasize about having the House and the Senate and the Presidency…which would, of course, also give them effective control of the court system, as well.
They will say to their ranks, "This is an opportunity to get everything we've ever wanted. We can ban abortion and gay marriage and Obamacare and environmental protection and every last trace of gun control and The Daily Show and Big Bird and judges who rule against us and all those taxes you hate paying and illegal immigrants (except for those who work cheap for you) and we can add Reagan and Bush to Mount Rushmore and pass all sorts of laws that will make it impossible for the Democrats to ever win another election…but we must have every single branch of government to do it. It doesn't matter what Jeb Bush (or other candidate some would call a R.I.N.O.) has done in the past. All that matters is that he will pledge to never veto anything that the Republican House and the Republican Senate will pass…
"…so are you going to not support him and risk ruining our one chance to destroy the Democratic/Liberal agenda finally and forever?"
Now, I don't think there's much chance of the G.O.P. taking the Triple Crown. But I think what I just wrote is a compelling argument that would get a lot of Tea Party types to work their butts off for Jeb Bush (or Romney again or anyone in that category) to say nothing of the bucks it would unlock from the Koch Brothers and other zillionaire donors. I think that's what the 2016 election will all be about.
And like I said, I may be wrong. I just think that's going to be the dream and the Tea Party folks won't let a little thing like Jeb Bush being a Bush and a crook get in the way of it.