I've had a lot of requests to run down where we currently are with all this…
Craig Ferguson's new quiz show, Celebrity Name Game, starts next month. He leaves The Late, Late Show in December and sources are saying he's lined up a half-hour weeknight show that Tribune-Media will syndicate to run at 7 PM each evening.
The half-hour strikes me as odd. I could understand an hour but not a half-hour. One of the problems I think his 12:30 show on CBS had — and one of the reasons I went from being a huge fan and a steady-watcher to watching him occasionally — is that I thought the show got to be Too Much Craig. This is the kind of thing that lessened my interest in TiVoing Dave and Conan and certain other talk show hosts before them.
It's like at some point, something in their brain said to them, "Stop worrying about keeping the show tight, dump that well-written prepared material and stall bringing your guests out. What America wants is to see you just rambling and screwing around and ad-libbing and making funny faces." In Conan's and Craig's case, it also included dancing and doing funny voices and in all three, talking a lot during the interviews and competing with the guests for laughs.
I still think Mr. Ferguson is one of the most talented guys to ever work that format. I just think though that his show has gotten to be too much about him. If his new show isn't, it might do quite well. If it's like the first half hour of his Late, Late Show, probably not.
Two weeks ago, many a website reported that it was a done deal that his replacement on CBS would be a British chap named James Corden. No formal announcement has been made and Bill Carter of the New York Times hasn't reported it. I don't think he's even mentioned the rumor. That leads me to suspect that while it may turn out to be Mr. Corden, it isn't or wasn't as much of a done deal as the reports made it out to be. Since they're not just replacing the host but the entire creative team (producers, writers, etc.), they don't have a lot of time. If Corden had been signed two weeks ago, Carter would have long since announced that.
In the meantime, Mr. Fallon and Mr. Meyers continue to kill in their respective time slots. Seth Meyers has been getting better ratings at 12:35 AM on NBC than David Letterman has been getting at 11:35 PM on CBS. Nevertheless, everyone expects that Dave's last few months on CBS will be a ratings monster as he has on every superstar in the business for their farewell visits. I don't see that anyone is certain yet when those last few months will be.
I predicted here that Letterman would leave at the end of February sweeps and that Stephen Colbert would start on the first Monday following Dave's last broadcast. That would have meant Colbert could not do his show from the Ed Sullivan Theater like Dave, at least at first. There wouldn't be time for Dave's staff to move out, for Stephen's to move in, for the set to be redone, for Colbert to do test shows, etc. Well, it looks like all that is wrong…but I'll stick with my belief that CBS wanted most of it to go like that.
It's now looking like Dave will stay on through the May sweeps as Johnny did. And since Colbert's going to do his show from the Ed, that means a period of several months when neither show will be on CBS at 12:35. What will? Beats me. I think 10-12 weeks of Letterman reruns would get about the same viewership as the YouTube videos I embed here. I thought maybe they'd move the 12:35 host — whoever it turns out to be — up for a time but probably not. That would look like they were auditioning Colbert's replacement even before his show started.
So I have no idea what's going to go in there to bridge the gap. I wonder if anyone at CBS does.
Colbert's supposed to do his last show on Comedy Central just before this year's Christmas break. I'm curious as to whether they picked that date because they figured he'd start on CBS in March…and now regret that decision because it's looking like he won't start The Late Show until late August or early September.
Makes you wonder if extending on Comedy Central is an option. Colbert is reportedly taking most of his creative staff with him and I don't think anyone wants to lay them off…or pay them for six months of not doing a show. If he doesn't extend on Comedy Central and they do pay all those folks 'til he starts on CBS, he'll probably start there with an unprecedented supply of prepared material and pre-recorded bits.
In the meantime, Jay Leno is working at something resembling a human rate, doing his web series and flying around to stand-up gigs. He recently downed a 24-ounce Fatburger in five minutes and did a spot for Last Comic Standing. He'll probably turn up as a guest with Dave one of these nights — a night when Seth Meyers won't get higher numbers.
Jimmy Kimmel's show remains steady. I keep giving it a try and coming to the conclusion that it's a well-produced, well-written show starring a guy I can't stand to watch. He can probably stay on forever without my viewership. Mr. Fallon and Mr. Meyers also do well-produced, well-written shows that don't much interest me despite the fact that I like both of them.
I don't expect to feel that way about Colbert and I hope whoever follows him is really terrific. I kinda miss not having a late night program — not counting The Daily Show or Colbert's current one — that I want to watch every night.