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In an interview with Howard Stern, Neil Patrick Harris says he turned down being David Letterman's replacement on Late Show because he thinks he'd get bored with that format. He also ruled out following Craig Ferguson on Late, Late Show for the same reasons.

As you may recall, I predicted Colbert would get Late Show and Harris would get Late, Late Show so maybe I oughta do a partial victory lap and say, "See? I called Late Show right and they would have given the other show to Harris had he not made it clear he was not interested." But the truth is that we don't know exactly what was offered. There's a big difference between someone saying "Are you interested?" and someone making you the kind of firm offer where all you have to do is say yes and you've got the job.

And in-between those two extremes, there's also the matter of negotiation, which can turn what sounds like a real offer into no offer.

I'm not sure this is true but a writer for Jay Leno told me once that Jay has several times been called by the folks putting on the Academy Awards telecast and they asked him, "We're putting together a list for the network of people we want to have host the Oscars and we really want you…but we hear you don't want to do it. Should we leave you off our list?" And Jay said each time, "Yeah, thanks but I don't want to do it. Leave me off the list."

Assuming that story is true, would it be accurate for Leno to say, "They offered me the Oscars and I turned them down"? Well, sort of but not exactly. My first agent used to say, "Don't confuse interest for an offer. It's not an offer until they put real money on the table."

So we don't know if what N.P.H. said no to was a real offer or just an exploration of whether he might want such a gig. Maybe they were already talking to Colbert, weren't sure they could make a deal with him and began conversations with Harris just in case. Or maybe they felt that in order to keep Harris in "the CBS family," they should at least approach him and let him know they were thinking of him for that prestigious job.

It's been done before. Long before Johnny Carson actually did retire from The Tonight Show, there were times when it looked like he might leave and NBC dangled that job before a number of folks to get them to sign NBC contracts. It was a big reason McLean Stevenson left M*A*S*H and wound up doing sitcoms for the Peacock Network. He thought Johnny's job would soon come open and was positioning himself for it. Jon Stewart once thought he was being groomed for Dave's slot as well as being offered the one on ABC that Jimmy Kimmel got.

So…with Harris out of the running, who will get that 12:35 time slot on CBS? If I had to wager right now, I'd say Aisha Tyler…but I feel far less confident of that than I did of my previous prediction. Who, let me remind you, could have had it if he'd wanted it. It also wouldn't surprise me if they went with someone who hasn't been mentioned on any of the "Who'll Succeed Craig Ferguson?" lists. After all, Craig Ferguson wasn't on the "Who'll Succeed Craig Kilborn?" lists.

And frankly, I'm more interested in N.P.H. saying that he'd like to do a prime-time variety show for CBS. If anyone could bring back that genre, I'm betting it would be him.