The abortion rate in 2011 dropped to its lowest level since 1973. The so-called "pro-lifers" argue that it's because of more laws that make it harder for a woman to get an abortion. Folks like my friend Kevin Drum are arguing that that's not so; that the rate has been steadily dropping since 1980, since way before most of those laws were in place. Kevin writes…
Better contraceptives are part of the reason for the declining abortion rate. Lower teen pregnancy rates are part of the reason. Changing sexual mores might be part of the reason. But laws restricting abortion? That might succeed in making lots of poor women miserable, but it has nothing to do with declining abortion rates. Not yet, anyway.
That's all true but it seems to me he's leaving a biggie off the list: AIDS. The slight dip starting in 1980 may have been due to those factors he mentioned but the sharp plunge after seems to me to coincide with public awareness of the disease, especially as they learned it could affect heterosexuals. I became aware of it around '82 or '83 and it changed a lot of the recreational sex I observed around me. It wasn't just that the contraceptives were better. It was that condoms seemed more necessary. Even if the main reason for using them wasn't to avoid pregnancy, it stands to reason: More condom usage means less fertilization. Less fertilization means fewer abortions.
Also — and I'll try to phrase this as politely as I can — a lot of folks in my generation started to consider a wider array of things that a couple, gay or straight, might do to pleasure one another. That probably reduced the numbers a bit, too.