Lots of messages about Leno, all from folks I'm not sure want their names used so I won't. This one's from a friend in the TV business…
What if the Jimmy Fallon show is getting a .5 rating six months in, and NBC goes back to Leno and says they'll double his paycheck he'll do the show one more time? Did anybody ask him that? (I'm not saying that Jay is planning it.)
If they'd asked Jay that, he would have given the most diplomatic answer — that's not going to happen — but it's also probably the true one. This isn't like last time when Jay was still up and running with his 10 PM show. He had a studio, offices, a full staff, etc. Going back to The Tonight Show was just a matter of bringing in a new desk, booking more guests and changing the name on the studio doors. A pal of mine there then said that if they'd called Jay at 3:00 in the afternoon and said, "Hey, instead of taping The Jay Leno Show in an hour, make it an episode of The Tonight Show," they could have pulled it off.
This time, Jay's whole infrastructure there is being dismantled. There'll be no studio, no offices, no staff, etc. The Tonight Show is moving to New York, remember. Jay would have to start from scratch. NBC couldn't just pop him back into the slot while they looked around for the young guy they think can do the show for the next decade or two. If Fallon bombs to the point where they can't keep him on — which I also don't think will happen — they'll have to go out and find that next fellow in a hurry. (Also, it'll be a little harder to get rid of Fallon than it was to get rid of O'Brien. Fallon has Lorne Michaels behind him.)
This message is from a friend who works with Mr. Leno…
You're right. Jay didn't want to go off the air. I'm surprised as you that he's ruling out another late night slot now because he doesn't have to do that. As recently as a few weeks ago, he wasn't ruling that out. He was just chuckling and saying, "I'm not going to think about that now." Apparently, he has thought about it. It has me wondering if he has a new gig but it doesn't exactly fall under the definition of competing with the other guys in late night.
Maybe. Or maybe Jay's just decided to go out on top and turn into Bob Hope but without the cheesy prime-time specials and the Christmas tours. There really is a void that will need filling soon for Elder Statesperson of Comedy…and it's not like Leno doesn't have plenty to do. He has stand-up dates in Florida the night after he does his last Tonight Show.
That's one of the intriguing things for me about Leno: He's done it a different way from everyone else. He didn't set up a production company to do other shows like Dave and Conan did. He found another source of income. He's kept his stand-up, which he enjoys doing and for which he gets paid a fortune, as a viable avenue. Letterman doesn't seem to have anything else to do in show business once he leaves that show of his. Johnny didn't have anything to do once he left his. Jay's got a job the next night.
Lastly, this is from a fellow comedy writer…
I feel like you do about all the late night shows except that I never saw as much in Craig Ferguson as you once did. Letterman really depresses me. He used to be a guy you tuned in to watch because his show was dangerous and he was constantly doing things that neither he nor anyone had ever done on television before. Now, he seems determined to do exactly the same show, including some of the same monologue jokes, he did the night before. So how long do you think he's going to do it and how well do you think Fallon's going to do?
The answer to how long Dave's going to do it may be answered when we see his numbers without Jay against him. If they go up considerably, he could be there a while. If he finds himself finishing third to two Jimmies…well, he might still stick around as long as they'll let him. I get the feeling Dave's doing that show because he doesn't know what else to do (see above) and he likes having a place to go during the day. He does have a special relationship with Les Moonves there and if not for that, I suspect he would have gotten the tap on the shoulder by now.
One big difference between Jay and Dave is that Jay didn't put NBC in business at 11:35 the way Letterman opened up that time slot for CBS, as well as the one that follows his show. We forget what a desolate wasteland that was before Dave moved in there…and now, no one's assuming there won't be a new talk show there whenever he stops doing his. I kind of assume CBS would like to get a younger guy in there but the affiliates aren't pushing because they recognize that Dave cleared the land. That makes it harder, though not impossible, to kick him off it.
How will Fallon do? I think he'll do well enough for NBC and maybe a little better than that. I don't think his show will beat Leno's numbers but I think NBC is in this for the long haul, and they figure that by 2015 or 2016, Fallon will be equalling or bettering what Jay would have done then if they'd left him on…plus he'll be doing the show for a lot less money. I suspect NBC wasn't prepared for Conan to pull down lower numbers than Jay but they are prepared to cope with that with Fallon. The business has changed a lot in the last few years with regard to late night. It's no longer the major profit center it once was. Now, there's the feeling that if it's ever going to be that again, it's going to require patience and reinvention. If they just wanted to be #1 in the time slot now, they would have left Jay in place until his numbers started to sink.
Speaking of late night: It's after 5 AM and I still have a script to finish before I sleep. More on this tomorrow, assuming I don't sleep through tomorrow.