So let's check in on what's up with the late night shows, shall we? NBC continues to deny reports (actually, one anonymously-sourced report repeated in many venues) that it will soon announce it's replacing Jay Leno with Jimmy Fallon. The newer story is that the Chairman of NBC Entertainment complained to Leno about monologue jokes on the dismal ratings performance of the network lately.
Several of you called my attention to this story that says Jimmy Kimmel's ratings are below what Nightline was previously doing in that time slot. I'm not sure that report accurately reflects what's going on. Are they comparing Kimmel's ratings for a full hour to Nightline's for a half hour? Every hour-long late night show loses viewers as it goes along and they lose a big chunk around the halfway mark. A large amount of Leno's success in overtaking Letterman was not a matter of getting more people to tune in but in getting them to stick around longer.
At times, reporters have not noted the distinction as they've covered the ratings. Nightline usually finished third in the 11:35-12:05 period but its ratings looked better when laid alongside Jay's and Dave's for their full hours. I haven't crunched numbers but it appears to me that's why Kimmel seems like he's not doing as well. Even if he is doing worse than Nightline though, ABC has to be happy with his demographics and with the fact that he was even this competitive from the get-go.
A lot of what all this is about is that there's a feeling at all three networks that Late Night TV as we know it will soon be over; that before long, something new will have to be done in that day part. Leno continues to win by narrow margins but all three 11:35 shows are pulling digits that would have denoted failure just a few years ago. The main argument for Kimmel displacing Nightline was never that he would put Jay and Dave outta work right away. It was that he might represent the future of that time slot; that eventually, all three networks would only be chasing the 18-49 demographic there and that Kimmel would have established himself well by the time NBC and CBS replaced their old guys. That premise has yet to be disproven.
I don't think NBC is ready to dump Jay since Jay is winning at a time when very little else at the network is. I don't think CBS is ready to dump Dave because Dave is Dave. But I don't think anyone at any of the three networks would bet serious bucks that they'll have the same show at 11:35 three years from now that they have there now. Or that the replacements will be the men who seem now to be in the on-deck circles.