Someone who signs his name "G.E." and is presumably not General Electric, writes about Craig Ferguson getting a bigger studio…
I agree the larger space never made a TV show better. But I think it's to prep him for taking over at 11:30 when Dave retires in 2014 (he'll be 67). So if network TV still exists in its current form in 2014, I think you're looking at Craig Ferguson vs. Jimmy Fallon at 11:30. The networks may or may not decide to keep programming the 12:30 hour. And Dave and Jay will have disappeared as suddenly as Rather, Jennings, and Brokaw.
I may be wrong but I don't see either Ferguson or Fallon as inevitable at 11:30. Some people act like there's some grand tradition in late night of the 12:30 host moving up an hour when the 11:30 guy departs. That's happened exactly once and it was a disaster.
Ferguson reportedly has a contract that guarantees him 11:30 on CBS if Letterman drops dead or something. I find it hard to believe that the network would commit to him in that time slot far in the future. One of the key things that went wrong in the Jay/Conan substitution was that NBC projected that during the five years before Conan took over, Leno's ratings at 11:30 would atrophy and Conan's at 12:30 would remain high. Then the opposite happened.
Do we think CBS is prepared to risk making the same mistake? They may well have Ferguson in mind to succeed Dave but I somehow think they'll leave other avenues open. Maybe Craig has a deal to move into that slot but the contract has a lot of ifs and escapes in case, say, his ratings drop just when Jon Stewart is suddenly a free agent.
When Dave Letterman will retire is a decision that will probably be made wholly by Dave Letterman and it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't know when that might be…or if he decides, then changes his mind, then decides, then changes his mind, etc. The answer may hinge on him answering the question, "What do you do with the rest of your life after you give up doing the only thing you ever wanted to do?" A lot of folks close to Mr. Carson thought it was not good for him to, in effect, have nothing to do all day once he gave up The Tonight Show.
Even if that wasn't really the case with Johnny, I'm inclined to think Letterman won't make that mistake. Is he ready to abandon his little family (staff) and the audiences in New York and retire to that ranch in Montana? His entire career, Dave's shown close to zero interest in appearing on anyone else's program. He'll do Oprah or he went on with Regis a few times in exchange for them visiting him…but even there, I think the formula was that Regis had to do Dave's show 25 times to get one return appearance from Dave. If Letterman finds some other way to remain active, he might set an abdication date. Or if the show starts to plunge and he feels he's despoiling his legacy and/or looking like a has-been who doesn't know when get off the stage, he might retire. I don't know about the former but I don't see the latter happening in the next two or three years.
I also don't see Leno leaving that soon. Then again, his network seems to like to get rid of him when he's in first place so anything can happen. My guess is Fallon would only be one option to take over for him and some pretty high-powered names would also be in contention. Could NBC possibly be thinking of moving their 12:30 guy to 11:30? I mean, we saw how well that worked just three years ago.