I don't care much about the Iowa Caucus and three or four days after it's over, no one else is likely to care much about it. But after I posted the previous message, I got this from my pal Vince Waldron…
On the other hand, I think Obama's surprising showing in Iowa in 2008 was the single most important turn in his candidacy. As I recall, the sentiment before then, even among black voters, was that a black candidate didn't have a chance so why even bother campaigning for the guy. Obama's upset in Iowa definitely cost Hillary momentum in the subsequent primaries, when his grasp of the democratic spot was secured.
He's right…and I suppose if Rick Santorum won next week in a landslide, that would turn him into the frontrunner, at least until the next primary-type event. But four years ago, it was genuine news that a black guy could do so well in Iowa. It's not going to be the same kind of news that any of the Republican contenders score well…and the winner is not going to win with 37% like Obama did. It'll be more like 25%.
I actually would be curious about any polling on the enthusiasm of the G.O.P. voters for the candidates. I sure get the sense that most of them are going "eenie meenie mitey mitt" and that the Newt backers of this week are the Perry voters of next week and vice-versa. They're just waiting for one contender to break away from the herd and then they'll all fall in line behind that person…and then their enthusiasm for that person will have everything to do with how likely the polls say it is that that person can beat Obama. There are Republicans who don't trust Mormons or think a given candidate is soft on Immigration or something…but when it comes time for the real vote, electability will trump (no pun intended) all other concerns for most of them. The one exception is that I don't think most of those supporting Ron Paul will think that one of the others is an acceptable substitute. A lot of them would rather lose with Paul than win with Mitt or Newt.
And let me share this e-mail from Dennis Lynch, who lives in Iowa…
As a resident of Iowa, I can tell you exactly what the important outcomes of the caucus will be: The temporary abatement of local political advertising (at least 10 for each 30 minute show), an end to robocalls, polls and political activists, and a break from coming up with new cuss words. You can only scream "liar" and "Shithead" so often.
I suspect this election will prove there is no limit.