I'm not sure how guilty or innocent Herman Cain is of sexual harassment…and a lot of the folks who say they're sure really can't be but you know how it is in politics: The guy you want to have be guilty is always guilty and the guy you want to have be innocent is being smeared by a ginned-up phony story. All I know is Cain's version keeps changing and getting worse…so even if he didn't verbally accost all those ladies, he's at least guilty of bad crisis management and not being able to get his story straight. I also think some of his defenders are saying some pretty stupid things…like "there's really no such thing as sexual harassment" and "the media never covers charges of sexual misdeeds against Democrats." We all know how little traction Paula Jones's allegations got.
Polls say Republicans aren't deserting Cain over this. Well, actually the headlines reporting those polls say that. The actual polls show some erosion. There might be more if those Cain supporters had a viable second choice to go to. If they don't want Romney, giving up on Herman just means moving to some other flawed candidate who has little to offer besides not being Mitt Romney.
But the main thing here is that I really don't believe most of the current Cain supporters figure on being Cain supporters when it comes time to vote. I think telling a pollster "I'm for Herman Cain" is like saying "I'm for anyone who didn't do these four or five things (like launch an Obamacare-like health program) that Mitt Romney did." For most of them, there's no point in abandoning Cain now because they're already planning on abandoning him before marking their ballots for whoever at that moment seems most likely to beat Obama.
The question I'd like to see the pollsters ask is "Regardless of who you'd like to see be the Republican nominee, which candidate do you think would stand the best chance of unseating Barack Obama?" I'll bet that would be a better indicator of who the G.O.P. candidate will be than "Who do you intend to vote for?"