You may have heard that a recent CNN poll found for the first time that a majority of Americans (52% to 46%) believe that gays should have the right to marry each members of the same sex. This is not so. A majority of Americans may now feel that way but that's not what the poll asked. It asked, and I quote —
Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?
That's not exactly the same thing. It's possible for someone to believe — and surely, someone somewhere does — that same-sex marriages should be legal but that it doesn't have to be a constitutional right. It's also possible (though less likely) that someone who favors gay wedlock could answer no to that question because they think it's already a constitutional right…or maybe even a right conferred by some higher order.
In any case, that's the question that got the 52% yes/46% no answer. The poll is more interesting when you contrast that number to the other question that was asked, presumably of the same respondents…
Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?
The vote on that one was 49% yes and 51% no. From that, we might infer the following. Assume that almost anyone who is dead set against gays being allowed to wed would answer no to both questions. We'll also assume for the moment that the exceptions I just wrote about are statistically insignificant. What you would then deduce is that 49% of Americans think same-sex marriage is okay and is already legal under our constitution, 46% think it shouldn't be legal, and 5% think it isn't a constitutional right but should be.
Of course, all of that assuming starts with ignoring that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%…so really what you have here is a split decision. The country's just about even on both these questions. What I get out of all these surveys is that the momentum is moving in one direction. That's what all the mainstream polls — every one, I think — taken collectively seem to indicate.
Meanwhile, if I understand it, the folks who opposed Proposition 8 are worried that if and when the case gets to the Supreme Court, it will be overturned by Justice Kennedy, while the folks who backed 8 are worried that if and when it gets there, it will be affirmed by Justice Kennedy. Some among the latter are so concerned that there we have prominent opponents of Gay Marriage suggesting that their cause concede California so as not to suffer a loss on a nationwide scale. Some of them also think that the way the laws are written, they may lose on sheer technicalities.
Personally, I think this thing will go the distance…but isn't it kinda sad that this issue could get decided, not on the basis of what's morally right but on how certain unrelated statutes about who has standing and how to file an appeal are written? It's also regrettable that our Supreme Court has become so polarized that not one human being on this planet seems to have the slightest doubt how eight of the nine Justices will vote. If and when the case gets there, we oughta have those folks stay home, skip the argument in the courthouse and just let the opposing attorneys take Kennedy to lunch and debate it over cheeseburgers. They have Five Guys in the District of Columbia so that would work fine.