A lot of folks in the press have been dying to write the story about how Jay Leno's ratings have collapsed and to say it now doesn't look like it was such a wise idea for NBC to oust Conan O'Brien and reinstate Jay in the time slot. You can certainly spin the current numbers that way, though I'd imagine NBC's spin would be along the lines of, "Hey, if you think Leno's doing poorly now, take a look at our estimates of where O'Brien would now be if we'd left him on." And you could interpret the numbers that way, too.
What's lost in the shuffle is what I think oughta be the lede: All the late night shows, except maybe Nightline, are way down in audience share. Most of the headlines will tell you, for example, that in the second quarter of this year, The Tonight Show with Jay Leno posted its lowest-rated numbers since The Late Show with David Letterman launched on CBS in 1993. This is true. Farther down in the article, they might mention that Letterman is also getting some of the worst numbers he's had on CBS. Also true. Put simply, America is presently bored with that kind of show…and I don't think I'm just projecting because I am.
Back some ways on this blog, there are posts where I extolled my fondness for both Jay and Dave and explained that I TiVo both, watch both, like both. Over the last few years and especially in the last few months, that has changed. Both shows have simply become too predictable, too repetitive, too plastic. Maybe some of it's me but obviously, I'm not the only one who's no longer tuning in. I started getting bored with Letterman some time ago and took him off my TiVo Season Pass list during his mean-spirited, unsportsmanlike rants against Leno. I still believe Jay was fragged by his own network, then swift-boated by his competitors; that he didn't do anything particularly unethical in returning to a job he should not have lost the way he did. What he has been doing wrong, I think, is not doing as good a show as he used to.
I haven't officially given up on that show yet but I have 25 episodes of it sitting on my TiVo, unwatched. Lately, all the other things I TiVo seem more appealing, though every now and then, I watch the monologue of one Tonight Show and then if there's a guest that interests me (and there usually isn't), I jump ahead to view that segment. The monologues used to be sharper, the comedy spots used to be cleverer…and Jay looked less like he had a car waiting outside to speed him off to a private jet and a 10 PM gig in Vegas.
Recently, bandleader Kevin Eubanks departed. The reason, as originally reported, was that Eubanks was tired of the grind and eager to get back to a full-time career in music. That's possible or at least it's believable. What surprised me was that on one of Kevin's last shows, Jay awkwardly mentioned that the entire band was leaving at the same time; that new guy Rickey Minor was bringing in a whole new crew with him. I gather that was not because those musicians all decided at once that they were tired of the grind and eager to get back to a full-time career in music. Kevin may well have left on his own impulse but someone there has to have said, "We need a new sound for this program." Well, they've got it but it isn't making a bit of difference…because what's been wrong with The Tonight Show for some time has not been the music.
My sense is that the program is suffering from a bad case of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." On a show like that which needs material every night, it's real easy to find something that works and beat it to death…and then when it stops working, the instant thought is, "Well, we need to do more of it." Mr. Carson's longevity had a lot to do with being willing to turn loose of old bits…and also that was a different era where folks didn't watch YouTube and get as instantly oversaturated with things. And also, Johnny wasn't on five nights a week, most weeks of the year.
One of Carson's long-time writers keeps making a point to me whenever I see him: "All these new guys —" (He's including Letterman and Leno amongst the new guys) "— will tell you Johnny was the master, Johnny did a talk show better than anyone. But they're all confident they can do their shows without an Ed McMahon…and Johnny thought Ed was an absolute necessity." I think there's some wisdom there.
I liked Conan O'Brien better, the more involved Andy Richter was with his show…and I don't mean just that I liked the show better. I liked Conan as a person better. I always felt he came off as a bit of a show biz phony when he was talking to the audience and as a real nice, funny guy when he was bantering with Andy. I call this the Ed Norton Syndrome. If you take Ralph Kramden alone, he's a loudmouthed guy who lies to everyone and threatens to belt his wife. But put Ed Norton next to him and you see the human side of Ralph. I liked David Letterman better when he seemed to have a closer relationship with Paul Shaffer, too.
Anyway, Leno may develop some solid, on-screen relationship with Rickey Minor but now, when Jay's had so much bad press, was a bad time to lose what he had with Eubanks. It's also a bad time to be doing Pumpcasting for what feels like the eight thousandth time. Those "remote correspondent" bits in which Jay disappears completely from his own show for ten key minutes may be funny the first time or two but they have a short expiration date and I don't think they even serve the outside performers who are brought in to do them. Ross the Intern has become a bit of a celebrity from his spots but the show keeps introducing other folks who do a spot or three, then wear out their welcomes and disappear…in many cases, completely from television. That should be telling the producers something.
The whole show just has a feeling to me of being on Auto-Pilot. Jay runs in and does the monologue — and they've all started to sound alike. He intros the comedy spot that follows. Once a week, it's Headlines, and they've all started to sound alike. Much of the time, it doesn't even involve Jay. Then he goes through interviews with performers who are momentarily hot. Once in a while, it's someone with whom he has some rapport. Most of the time, it's almost-scripted q-and-a right off the cards. Then he intros the band and by that point, he might as well have his car keys out and be edging towards the door.
I'm afraid I don't find Letterman any more interested in his own show…or Kimmel. Or Fallon. The only one of those guys who looks like he ever wonders, "What can I do tonight I haven't done before?" is Craig Ferguson.
So are any of them in trouble? Not right now because at the moment, there's nobody else.
Someone wrote to ask me if I thought Leno would get fired (how many times would this be?) if his numbers don't pick up. They'd probably have to fall for a long time before that happened. First of all, his track record for bounceback is still not one to be quickly dismissed…and secondly, who would you put in there? I haven't heard any names mentioned by anyone in or around NBC and that's how you'll know if and when Jay is in trouble. You'll hear a name and it won't just come from some outside observer. It'll be sourced from somewhere within. That hasn't happened yet.
Letterman's not doing that well either but with him, it's different. He's David Letterman, the only thing CBS has ever had that's worked at that hour. He won't leave until he's good and ready. The next change that's going to happen in late night will be when Conan O'Brien debuts his new show on TBS. The industry consensus, which is not always right about this stuff, seems to be that he'll get a lot of initial tune-in, then settle down to a small but loyal audience that will be profitable but which will not threaten Jay or Dave. If Conan does essentially the same program he did at NBC, that sounds like a safe prediction. If he does something that revolutionizes that kind of show…well, somebody's going to have to.
The Jay vs. Dave battle has been fun in some ways but the real outcome is that the audience out there seems to be bored with both shows. If the respective hosts were more engaged — if this week's shows didn't seem so much like reruns of last week's shows — they could be doing better but I don't think they can ever be Must-See-TV again. At some point, someone is going to come along and reinvent talk shows the way Mr. Letterman once did. Until then, I've got a TiVo and plenty of other channels and DVDs. And I've learned, as so much of America is learning, that you don't absolutely have to watch a talk show after the 11:00 news. Hell, you don't even have to watch the 11:00 news anymore…