The Lion King is about to become the eighth longest-running show in Broadway history. Here's the way the Top Ten will break down as of this Sunday…
- The Phantom of the Opera (9,179 performances)*
- Cats (7,485)
- Les Miserables (6,680)
- A Chorus Line (6,137)
- Oh! Calcutta (5,959)
- Chicago (5,508)*
- Beauty and the Beast (5,461)
- The Lion King (5,125)*
- Rent (5,124)
- Miss Saigon (4,097)
The three with asterisks are still running. As you can see, it may be decades before anything catches Phantom of the Opera. First of all, the show would have to close for that to happen. Some think that may happen soon as it has lately been playing at around 66% of capacity and its touring company is finally folding in November after seventeen (!) years. But the Broadway version has been doing that two-thirds kind of business for quite a while and since all its start-up costs are long since paid off, it's surely turning a tidy profit with those numbers. Even if Phantom shut down tomorrow, Chicago (which hasn't been doing much better) would have to stay open for around nine more years to snatch the #1 spot. No one expects that to happen.
Lion King, which has been filling around 85% of its seats probably stands a better chance of making it to the top slot, though I wouldn't put money on it. In less than a year, it'll almost surely elbow Beauty and the Beast aside and take the #7 position. It might well outlast Chicago and hit #6…and after that, it's hard to say. It would be kinda ironic if Lion King someday toppled Cats from its perch.
My guess is that neither of the two immediate contenders that are still running will ever see #1, nor will any of the still-running hits farther down the list like Mamma Mia, Wicked and Jersey Boys. To give you some idea of how incredible the run of Phantom is already, it has now played more performances on Broadway than the original productions of My Fair Lady, Hello, Dolly and Fiddler on the Roof put together — and each of those was at one time, the longest-running show ever on The Great White Way.