Monthly Archives: January 2010

I was in a recording studio today working when someone came in and said Conan O'Brien has declared war on NBC, releasing a statement saying that he would not under any circumstances do The Tonight Show at 12:05 following The Jay Leno Show. Most of the news stories are saying that, as well. But when I read the statement, I found it to be somewhat less harsh than the headlines are making it out to be. I know you've probably read it elsewhere but here it is again, just for convenience…

People of Earth:

In the last few days, I've been getting a lot of sympathy calls, and I want to start by making it clear that no one should waste a second feeling sorry for me. For 17 years, I've been getting paid to do what I love most and, in a world with real problems, I've been absurdly lucky. That said, I've been suddenly put in a very public predicament and my bosses are demanding an immediate decision.

Six years ago, I signed a contract with NBC to take over "The Tonight Show" in June of 2009. Like a lot of us, I grew up watching Johnny Carson every night and the chance to one day sit in that chair has meant everything to me. I worked long and hard to get that opportunity, passed up far more lucrative offers, and since 2004, I have spent literally hundreds of hours thinking of ways to extend the franchise long into the future. It was my mistaken belief that, like my predecessor, I would have the benefit of some time and, just as important, some degree of ratings support from the prime-time schedule. Building a lasting audience at 11:30 is impossible without both.

But sadly, we were never given that chance. After only seven months, with my "Tonight Show" in its infancy, NBC has decided to react to their terrible difficulties in prime time by making a change in their long-established late night schedule.

Last Thursday, NBC executives told me they intended to move the "Tonight Show" to 12:05 to accommodate the "Jay Leno Show" at 11:35. For 60 years, the "Tonight Show" has aired immediately following the late local news. I sincerely believe that delaying the "Tonight Show" into the next day to accommodate another comedy program will seriously damage what I consider to be the greatest franchise in the history of broadcasting. The "Tonight Show" at 12:05 simply isn't the "Tonight Show." Also, if I accept this move I will be knocking the "Late Night" show, which I inherited from David Letterman and passed on to Jimmy Fallon, out of its long-held time slot. That would hurt the other NBC franchise that I love, and it would be unfair to Jimmy.

So it has come to this: I cannot express in words how much I enjoy hosting this program and what an enormous personal disappointment it is for me to consider losing it. My staff and I have worked unbelievably hard, and we are very proud of our contribution to the legacy of "The Tonight Show." But I cannot participate in what I honestly believe is its destruction. Some people will make the argument that with DVRs and the Internet, a time slot doesn't matter. But with the "Tonight Show," I believe nothing could matter more.

There has been speculation about my going to another network but, to set the record straight, I currently have no other offer and honestly have no idea what happens next. My hope is that NBC and I can resolve this quickly so that my staff, crew, and I can do a show we can be proud of, for a company that values our work.

Have a great day and, for the record, I am truly sorry about my hair; it's always been that way.

Yours,
Conan

The part about Jimmy Fallon strikes me as if not disingenuous then a bit off-mark. Fallon's show isn't doing all that well and a shake-up with regard to what comes before him might just be his best shot at survival. Even if NBC decided to leave Conan at 11:35, they could still decide to replace Fallon with something more promising.

But the rest of Conan's statement probably left NBC wondering how much is sincere and how much is an attempt to gain negotiating leverage. Meetings 'twixt NBC execs and Conan's reps are said to be going on at this very moment…and if Conan's folks walked in the door and said, "Conan either stays at 11:35 or he walks," well, that might be a very short meeting.

I'm still skeptical of how O'Brien would do at 11 PM on Fox, especially since that would put him up against The Daily Show and The Colbert Report in most markets. They wouldn't beat him since he'd have better clearances but they might shave off a lot of viewers in his favored demographic. I like Conan but I don't see another place on the schedule of any major network where I'd bet money on his success. One online article I read wondered if ABC would dump Nightline and move Jimmy Kimmel later to make room for O'Brien. Dump the number one show in that time slot in favor of the guy finishing in third place? Even with Conan's "younger viewer" advantage, that doesn't sound likely to me.

So there's a lot that's unknown here. But one thing I can say for sure: Tonight's monologues are going to be interesting. I think I'm most looking forward to Craig Ferguson's. He's the one guy in this whole job description who looks reasonably secure.

So where are we now with the Leno/O'Brien situation? If you believe what's being leaked — and there's a pretty big "if" in that phrase — the hitch is that Conan O'Brien is balking at the pushback to 12:05. There are suggestions out there that Fox may offer him a show at 11 PM and that he'd take it before he'd let NBC move him to the midnight hour.

The trouble with parsing all this leakage is that we don't, for example, know exactly what's in the various contracts. Some sources are saying that Conan's deal with NBC pays him a huge sum of money if he doesn't get at least a full two-year tour of duty on The Tonight Show, but that the network can move him and the show by that name to 12:05 without triggering that penalty. Is this so? The amount quoted seems to vary from report to report. It's always huge but the fact that no one seems to know precisely how much it is makes me wonder what else these sources don't know. That would be a major factor in what's going to happen but we don't know if that contractual provision exists or if so, if there are loopholes or outs in it.

On the Conan side, I'm going to guess that staying at 11:35 at NBC no longer seems possible so they're looking at securing the next-best situation. They'll talk to Fox and other suitors…but Fox would have to put down a huge amount of money and a long-term on-air commitment to make that happen. Would they make such an offer to a guy who, when you look at the numbers, isn't doing all that well at 11:35?

Hard to say. Networks can be funny about taking away shows or stars from each other. Sometimes, it can look like a coup to steal away a competitor's asset. Other times, it looks like you're so unable to generate your own hits that you're grabbing for someone else's discards. And you have to remember that what works one place may not work in another. Fox got burned pretty badly by the assumption that Joan Rivers at 11 PM would get at least the same ratings she was getting at 11:35 when she filled in for Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show. She didn't. Not even close.

Then you had The Chevy Chase Show in the same time slot. That one was such a disaster that they probably don't want to rush into putting another such program on there; not without a lot of research and consideration. They might like the idea of Conan but this is looking like a deal that has to be made in the next week or so…or not at all. O'Brien's numbers for NBC haven't been bad with the kind of demographic group that Fox covets, but they probably don't justify the kind of sudden offer that would make him jump. If I had to bet, I'd bet that all this talk of Conan heading to Fox is being exaggerated by a media that likes to ratchet up the drama in a story like this.

In the meantime over at CBS, David Letterman and Craig Ferguson are "very close" to being signed to stay put "deep into 2012." Letterman started his late night career with an NBC show that debuted in February of 1982 and ran until June of 1993. Then he was off the air for two months before he started his current CBS show. If he were to retire in April of 2012 — these are approximate dates — he would have logged thirty years total in late night TV. Is the plan something like that, to come out with a round number that approximates Mr. Carson's record?

Probably not, and it's probably too soon to think about that. One thing for certain: Whenever Dave does his last show, it'll come in a network ratings "sweeps" period. No one knows yet when that will occur in 2012, just as Dave probably doesn't know now how he'll feel then about retirement. At the moment, for us viewers, it's just nice to have some stability in the daypart.