Gene Popa writes to ask a couple of things…
Why does NBC seem to be convinced that returning Jay to 11:35 will make the show #1 again? He basically did the same shtick at 10:00, and had a hard time drawing flies. Much of the audience at 11:35 have turned their loyalties to Letterman, Nightline, and elsewhere…so why such a firm belief (and an expensive one at that) at the network that Leno will be the king of late night again?
I don't think the belief is firm that he'll dominate the way he once did…and if they're saying that, it's wishful thinking and ad hype. I think the belief is pretty firm that he'll do better there than Conan did…and I haven't even seen the biggest Leno detractors say that won't happen. I agree his 10 PM show wasn't good but, heck, if he got that same audience at 11:35, he'd clobber both Dave and Nightline. Basically, their confidence is based on his track record.
And beyond that, what happens if Leno flops at 11:35? He's up against entrenched competition, and if Conan returns to the time slot on another outlet in September, that can only further erode the audience. Is NBC prepared to keep Leno in the TS chair for the length of his contract, even if the show isn't drawing viewers?
If Jay can't budge The Tonight Show out of third place, then the problem will be exactly the same as if they'd left O'Brien there and he was in third place. It's "Okay, now who do we get to host that show?" I don't know how long Jay's contract is for…but as we saw with Conan, contracts can be settled before they expire if it seems necessary. Obviously, NBC doesn't think the competition is all that entrenched.
(And if I were booking the Letterman show, on the first night of Leno's return to late night, I'd book Coco as Dave's only guest for the night. It could be his Hugh Grant moment.)
I think the importance of Hugh Grant to Leno's success is wildly exaggerated, as if his appearance on that show caused America to thereafter forget that Dave was even on. Jay's ratings were climbing before Hugh Grant. He would have passed Letterman a few weeks later if the Hugh Grant moment hadn't happened. Mr. Grant just moved the passing date up a bit.
More significantly: Not one person in America watches a late night show because they had something memorable happen last night, last week or years ago. Even while losing to Jay in general, Dave has had certain events that got him a massive tune-in for one night: His return from heart surgery, the night he had Hillary Clinton on, etc. The next day, viewing levels invariably return to where they were before. The only time something of that sort might make a difference is if the program that got the big audience was an unknown quantity. Maybe a few folks who watched Jay on Hugh Grant Night went, "Oh, this show is better than it was year before last." But at this point, pretty much everyone's decided how much they like Dave and his act doesn't change all that much from Late Show to Late Show.
If he had Conan on, either the first night Jay's back or soon thereafter, that would get a huge rating. Some of the coverage suggests that O'Brien can't do that because of terms in his settlement but even if he can, I think he'd be nuts to appear with Dave. He avoided a lot of Jay bashing on his last shows because that's a "no win" situation for him. No one who already likes him is going to like him any more…and folks who are on the fence are just going to think he's bitter. He'll probably save the attention he'd get appearing with Dave for that moment when he has a new show about to debut and needs to promote it.