They're saying that deals for Mssrs. O'Brien and Leno will be signed today. Then again, they said that yesterday. Conan's shows this week have been fiercely entertaining. Leno's have been awkward but they were awkward before this whole controversy started. And David Letterman…well, I like Dave almost any time he isn't whining about not getting to sit behind Johnny's desk or being ungracious to the guy who did. Yeah, he's funny…but he's starting to remind me of Orly Taitz making her case that Barack Obama was born in Kenya (or wherever it is this week).
It's hard to say how Jay Leno will do when his Tonight Show resumes. I think it'll depend a lot on whether he can surprise people with strong and fresh material. If he's doing Pumpcasting and that Jeopardy-for-Stupid-People bit by Wednesday, I think he's in trouble.
Still, one of the interesting things about the guy, and I think I made this point a few days ago here, is that people are always underestimating him. They underestimated how he'd do as Johnny's guest host. They underestimated how he'd do as Johnny's replacement. They underestimated how he'd do against Letterman with total viewers, then they underestimated how he'd do against Dave in the younger demographic. Once he had exceeded expectations in every one of those instances — and it really was this that triggered this whole, messy melodrama — his own network underestimated how long he could possibly stay in first place.
Want to know the one time he was overestimated? They overestimated his ability to deliver an audience at 10:00…and we all saw how that turned out. Maybe we oughta do him a favor and expect him to bomb big upon his return to 11:35.
Sources are saying that Conan is dickering with Fox, and I'm wondering what kind of terms he can possibly get since he doesn't seem to have an alternate competing offer. It's not like his agents can say, "Give him everything he wants or he's going to The Food Network." I hope he finds a slot soon because I'm looking forward to whatever he does, wherever he does it.
A number of folks have written to ask me who I think is "next in line" for David Letterman's job and if I agree with speculations that Craig Ferguson is a lock. No, I don't. Of Dave, Jay, Conan, the two Jimmies and Craig, I think Craig is offering up the most enjoyable show at the moment and I also suspect he's the only one whose powers of entertainment aren't fully developed or exploited in what he's currently doing. But here's my guess on this…
It's another one of those "we don't know" situations. It's possible that there's already some pre-negotiated deal in place; that in order to get Craig signed through 2012, as apparently was just negotiated, he has some contractual guarantee there. It's also possible that it's built into Dave's simultaneous renewal that he's annointing his successor. Letterman, like Conan and Jay, has always been concerned about what will become of his staff when he's no longer hosting. It would not be surprising if his pact says that if he leaves in '12 or before, they move Ferguson not only into that time slot but to New York and maybe even into that theater with as much of Dave's crew as is still present and eager to work. Letterman could also perhaps be repulsed at the thought of a battle over his throne, such as he endured and inflamed over at NBC, and he could want to preempt that from happening. So there's always the possibility of a deal of that sort. (One might note reports that suggest the current deals for both Dave and Craig expire at the same time. That would sure make it easier for the Scottish kid to replace Letterman.)
It's also possible that there is no already-secretly-arranged line of succession. CBS may simply not want to get trapped with a certain guy down the line, especially after seeing how badly things went when NBC decided to plan five years ahead for Conan to take over from Jay. If it's a free agent situation, I would suspect Mr. Ferguson is not at the absolute top of the standby list. He's more like that girl in the bar who's cute enough that you wouldn't mind taking her home but you're not quite ready to commit in case someone better walks in.
Assuming there's no deal in place, it would be in CBS's interest to see who else was available. By the time Dave needs a replacement — which might be a lot farther in the future than even he now imagines — another prospect could emerge as a bold and fresh comedy star. If Letterman left today and Ferguson didn't already have a guarantee of the job. I suspect CBS would first see if there was any way, financially and contractually, to manuever Jon Stewart behind the desk. Failing that, they might go after Stephen Colbert and one or two others (maybe Chris Rock) before they got down to Craig Ferguson. By 2012, that list will probably change somewhat. It might even include a name that would never occur to us right now.
And I'll bet NBC is quietly having discussions about who could take over The Tonight Show if Leno crashes and burns, either figuratively or on one of his motorcycles. I don't think it'll be Jimmy Fallon. Not at least until he starts consistently winning his current time slot.