One of the intriguing things to me about the whole Jay/Conan/Dave/etc. squabble is how folks are reacting to it, generally taking the side of the guy they find funniest and working backwards from there to explain how he's the good guy in the war. I also have some friends who've never watched O'Brien and perhaps never will…but they're so thrilled to see someone big slap down their idiot boss that they've joined Team Conan.
On some levels, this is a pretty simple story. Jay has a show at 10. Conan has a show at 11:35. Neither one is getting the ratings. Networks cancel shows for that reason alone every week and I'd guess that in 90% of those cases, the folks behind the axed show think, "If we'd had more time [and/or more promotion and support], our show would have been a hit." Sometimes, they're right. Network execs have been known to admit — quietly, off the record — that they shouldn't have cancelled certain programs they cancelled. They've also, of course, stuck too long with some, though they usually err on the side of cancellation.
When they don't quickly cancel a show with low ratings, one (or more) of three reasons is usually in play…
Sometimes, they just plain don't have another show on tap to replace it…or at least, another show they think will do any better. I told a story here a week or so ago about how a network exec told me he was cancelling a program and then a few days later, renewed it. I think that's what happened there. He didn't like what he had on but didn't have a good alternative. To further point out how unscientific all this can be, sometimes a show stays on because they don't have a replacement…and then it catches on and becomes a hit.
Sometimes, the programming folks have a hunch about a show that isn't (yet) drawing an audience. It's tested well or gotten good critical response…or they just plain like it and think it will catch on. M*A*S*H would probably be the best example. This doesn't happen as often as it probably should because when something's failing in the ratings, it takes a lot of courage to stand up in the meetings and say, "That show deserves more time." More often, they say, "I never thought that crap would work." (There's an industry joke where someone asks a network exec, "Did you like my show last night?" And the network guy says, "I don't know. I haven't seen any numbers yet!")
And sometimes, someone with clout can keep a marginal or failing show alive. Years ago, CBS had a series called White Shadow that had recently debuted to the kind of ratings that usually mean a hasty removal from the schedule. I worked on a pilot which, we were told, would almost surely be getting its time slot. Then contrary to everything they'd been telling us, CBS renewed White Shadow. When we asked how come, we were told, "Mr. Paley's wife loves it. When she heard we were dropping it, she persuaded him to intervene." William S. Paley was the absolute head of the network — the guy who built it and owned much of it. He always got what he wanted…and as it turned out, White Shadow not only lasted the season but found enough of an audience to stay on for several more.
When Conan O'Brien first took over as host of Late Night, his ratings were disappointing. There were those there who wanted to cancel him…and his renewals were in such tiny increments that they didn't suggest a lot of network confidence. It was like he'd do a monologue and then they'd renew him through the desk bit…and then if that worked, they'd pick up his option to interview his first guest…
Well, it probably felt like that to him. Finally, he got a little better and audiences began to get his sense of humor and everything clicked. He went on to do a fine, successful series. Why didn't they cancel him before that happened? I'm guessing all three reasons were in play then. They didn't have another show, or at least another host in the on-deck circle. The show was also getting some good reviews, including a glowing recommendation from none other than Dave Letterman. But there are those who would argue that the main reason NBC didn't oust Conan after 13 or so weeks was Lorne Michaels.
Lorne Michaels is, of course, the man who gave the world Saturday Night Live, which is one of the five-or-so greatest success stories in the history of broadcast television. Carson aside, he was the person who most intimidated (i.e., frightened) the suits at that network. And he was the man who plucked Conan O'Brien out of utter obscurity to host that show and Michaels also served as its Executive Producer. I don't know how often, if at all, he had to fight to keep Conan on the air. But I'll bet you that now and then, when someone suggested dropping the new kid, one exec there turned to another and said, "Hey, if you want to cancel him, you call Lorne and tell him he had a lousy idea!"
Now, I don't have any inside info on this but it is a fact that Mr. Michaels is uninvolved with The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien. Last evening when I was on Dawna Kaufmann's radio show, Dawna (who once worked for SNL) was saying that he could have advised Conan how to perhaps broaden the appeal of his Tonight Show and maybe get the numbers up a little. I have no opinion about that but I wonder if NBC would have been so quick to give up on the tall red-headed fellow if someone had to go call Lorne. Now that Johnny's gone, he's the guy they least want to upset…