Tammy Crotty (great name) writes to ask…
I know you're probably getting many emails asking this, but what do you think Jay Leno should do? I read your post suggesting NBC give Leno back The Tonight Show, but do you think Jay can possibly accept it and not be drawn and quartered by the critics? Won't he further ruin his already tarnished reputation? I'm an extremely huge fan of Jay's, and that's why I don't think he can stay at NBC and save face.
Jay's always been drawn and quartered by the critics. He's one of the most underestimated performers in the history of television. I mean, there are those who don't find him funny and that's never going to change. But I'm amazed how often I've heard that he would crash and burn and couldn't possibly attract a viewership. They said he'd never get The Tonight Show in the first place. Then when he did, they said the ratings would drop so much, NBC would dump him in 13 weeks. When that didn't happen and Letterman then went up against them, they said Jay'd be back working the Comedy Store full-time in six months. That time, it looked like they were right…but he only failed for a while, and only in the sense that Dave got higher numbers. Jay's ratings, even in second place, were never bad. I don't think he ever got below a 3.5 or so, whereas when Letterman's numbers started plunging, he dropped for a time to around 2.8.
Those are total viewer numbers. When Jay started beating Dave in total viewers, his critics said he'd never best Letterman in the younger demographic. Then he started beating Dave in the younger demographic and kept winning the time slot by every possible measure for something like thirteen years…including many periods when NBC's entire prime time schedule was in the dumpster. When you look at Leno's track record, it makes a wee bit more sense that the network was willing to gamble with him at 10 PM and doesn't want to let him go. (It, of course, makes less sense that they were willing to shove him aside for Conan…)
What should he do? Well, if he goes back on at 11:35, which is what some sources are saying is a done deal, he'd better do a damn better show than he did at 10:00. I even thought the bits he carried over and his monologue were weaker on the earlier show than they'd usually been on Tonight. I would hope the lesson of 10:00 would not just be that Jay doesn't work in that time slot but that viewers aren't all that wild about Jay Walking, The Battle of the Jay Walk All-Stars, all those faceless "correspondents," etc. The guy needs to reinvent his show again but I have the ominous hunch the opposite will happen. Someone will say, "Let's go back to what worked" and they'll attempt to restore the old show with a slightly new gloss.
Ultimately, if Jay can make The Tonight Show #1 again in its time slot, he'll be a hero and fewer people will say that Conan was horribly wronged by the switcheroo. My gut tells me that's not possible…but then I look at his track record and I wonder if my gut is just underestimating him, as so many other guts have.
If you'd like to read some nice press on Jay, read this. And I'll bet we're about to see Leno doing the "other talk show" circuit, admitting the 10 PM show was a mistake and saying how sorry he is that it worked out as it did for Conan. He may even be, for all I know. At least he knows what it's like to be shoved off The Tonight Show because a guy with lower ratings wanted it. It's happened to him twice now.