I thought Jay Leno's first prime time show was fine. Didn't care for the theme and the pace seemed a bit sluggish here and there…but he delivered a nice-enough hour. I suppose the most disappointing thing about it was that there was nothing particularly new. Then again, I can't recall the last comedic innovation I saw on any of the four major networks. Those who were predisposed to like Leno will like the new series…though there's some question as to whether they'll watch as often as they did when he was on at 11:35, and whether they'll be joined by sufficient numbers of the previously-uncommitted.
And I suppose if you never liked Jay, you're not about to start now. Some of the early reviews I'm seeing on the 'net appear bewildered that anyone could or would. There seems to be a lack of recognition in some that Jay Leno is as successful as he is…a lot of "Well, I don't like him so I can't believe anyone else does." I find the guy charming and candid and based on seeing him off-stage a few times and talking with him and closer associates, I believe he honestly enjoys his show and guests as much as he seems to. His chat with Jerry Seinfeld was nice because he didn't compete with the guy…he just sat there, enjoying how funny his buddy was, stepping in now and then to do the host thing and keep it all moving. That's harder than it looks.
I dunno how it'll all do but if I had to wager, I'd guess a big tune-in for the first night and incrementally smaller ratings from here on, with the occasional bounce when a superstar or big event comes along. At some point, I think America will start taking the thing for granted and the ratings won't be grand. But then later, when the opposition is all reruns and Jay's all new, you'll see some recovery. Will overall earnings be sufficient for NBC to keep things in place indefinitely? Beats the heck outta me. But they're certainly getting the show they bargained for.