A couple of points about this article that notes the ratings plunge (but demographics gain) of The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien behind the desk. One is, of course, that NBC ain't as happy with the situation as they claim to be. They couldn't be. Another is that CBS isn't crowing too loudly about Letterman's ratings dominance because everyone at both networks is thinking that anything can happen once Mr. Leno's new show debuts. It's all so lacking in precedent — and the viewerships for Conan and Dave seem so uncommitted — that no one wants to predict anything.
And the third thing is that because of the second thing, everyone's quietly drawing up contingency plans. CBS is thinking about what they'll do if all the late night viewing patterns collapse. NBC is thinking about what it would involve to put Leno back on The Tonight Show. And all the other networks are thinking that once they see what Leno's show will do to the dynamics, it might be a dandy time to invest in new late night programming. No one's saying it out loud but meetings are being held and proposals are being pitched. A friend of mine who's in the thick of it says, "Everyone knows someone's going to eat it…and they're all poised to leap in and capitalize on that failure. Just as soon as they know whose it is."