After initial numbers in the stratosphere, ratings for The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien have settled down to Leno levels. We always knew we'd get there but I don't think most folks expected it to happen before the first week was out. I still think Conan will do fine, at least until the new Leno show debuts in Fall, whereupon things will get — shall we say? — interesting. But I'll append to my earlier prediction that there's a news cycle crying out to happen — a flurry of articles that say NBC erred by bumping Jay for Conan and that Conan is not performing as well. I don't think that will be a long-term truth but there'll be some week soon where it looks that way and everyone will pounce to write those articles.
I've been crushed with Things That Had To Be Done this week so I've only had time to watch Conan's first show. It struck me as too self-congratulatory and a matter of trying too hard…but it also struck me as atypical of what the program will be like over the longer haul. My other initial reactions are that (a) the set, though beautiful, is too big; (b) Andy Richter belongs on the couch and will get there soon; (c) Conan never looks comfortable to me doing topical material because he's never struck me as a guy who even knows or cares what's happening in the news and (d) I was expecting something a bit less like the same show an hour earlier. But a lot of the prepared bits were very funny and several friends have e-mailed me to say it gets better as the week goes on. So I look forward to catching up over the weekend.