Nate Silver, who's had a pretty good track record when it comes to predicting elections, has crunched some numbers and come up with his picks for the major Oscar categories. Most of these are in line with Conventional Wisdom…so know that there are a lot of people around who have made the same forecasts without all the statistical analysis that Mr. Silver uses. Personally, I'm sticking with my belief that at least in the acting categories, the winner is the one that Academy members think will give the most passionate acceptance speech. I haven't seen either Milk or The Wrestler so I'm not judging the merits of either performance. But Mickey Rourke would give a more emotional acceptance speech than Sean Penn so Rourke will win.