Let's do a check-in and see what's up with the possibility of an Actors' Strike in Hollywood…
It's a mess and the actors are about to get hosed. End of check-in.
I could leave it at that but I'll elaborate. You have your two unions that rep actors: AFTRA and SAG. SAG is the giant gorilla, the one that covers something like 90% of the films and TV shows that folks care about. But AFTRA is a presence that has to be dealt with. Traditionally, the two unions negotiate in lockstep but this time out, they're going it apart in a move that looks like they decided to divide and make themselves easier to conquer. No matter what happens this year, there's going to be a lot of time/anger expended to try and get them back together — maybe even merged, at long last — before the next contract. Which is not to say that's going to happen. It might even be less likely than it's ever been.
AFTRA has made a tentative deal, subject to membership approval. As far as I can see, no one thinks it's a great deal. Some people say it's "good enough" but my sense is this sentiment comes from two places. There are actors out there who are also producers, writers, directors, etc., and they think it would be better for their other job descriptions if the actors settled quickly. Right now, there is no strike on the immediate horizon — neither union has even called for a strike authorization vote of its members — but production is impaired, nonetheless. Many movies that could be filming are not filming because of the possibility, however remote, of a strike. Same with TV shows that have to schedule their filming or taping in small, cautious increments, just in case.
You also have a number of actors who think that the AFTRA deal is "good enough," given how many platelets might have to be spilled to better it. There's this fear that the studios are way too adamant. They didn't get crushed by the Writers Guild strike but they did lose control of their industry and fail to force a lot of their Wish List demands on the WGA. Says an agent friend of mine, "The AMPTP is supposed to be this monolithic force that is impervious to unions and can control them like marionettes. The writers took a big chunk out of that concept, and now the AMPTP is determined to re-establish it via the actors."
So the acting community is split. Everyone knows the AFTRA contract isn't all it should be but some think that going to war for better terms would not be cost-effective or prudent. Oddly enough, that very divide in the union ranks has become an argument against a strike: "We can't mount an effective strike…we're divided."
SAG's current contract with the AMPTP expires tomorrow night. When it does, nothing will happen. As noted, SAG leadership has yet to ask its membership for strike authorization…a move that is widely being interpreted as an admission that the vote would not be overwhelming. (If you ask your members to okay a strike and it doesn't pass by at least 75%, you might as well not bother.) SAG will continue bargaining with the AMPTP in a series of meetings that, from all indications, aren't leading anywhere. In fact, rumor has it they've yet to even lead to an offer comparable to the one to AFTRA.
On July 8, we'll have the results of the vote of AFTRA's membership on whether to ratify their deal. There's been a lot of lobbying and campaigning and e-mailed letters from superstars. Tom Hanks is for it. Jack Nicholson is against it. I'm not sure either means anything. None of the terms in the deal affect them directly. In fact, it's more than likely that neither has worked under an AFTRA contract for years. They would, of course, be affected if a SAG strike delayed the filming of some movie they yearned to make.
No one seems to know if the AFTRA deal will pass but everyone seems pretty sure it won't be resoundingly defeated, which is what would have to happen for SAG to be empowered and the "we deserve a better deal" crowd to take control. Here are the likely scenarios…
If the AFTRA deal passes, the AMPTP will probably offer essentially the same thing to SAG, then announce that negotiations are over, done with, kaput, adjourned forever. Under no circumstances will they, the studios, return to the bargaining table or better the terms. Take it or leave it.
If the AFTRA deal loses by a small margin, the AMPTP will probably do essentially the same thing, though they will find a way — perhaps through sidebar negotiations or some intermediary — to give the unions a one-time-only, "grab it while you can" offer that is slightly better, in exchange for a quick acceptance. Otherwise, it will be as above: You stay out until you accept our final offer.
In either of these two situations, the AMPTP will just wait for the actors to fold. They probably won't have to wait long.
If the AFTRA deal loses by a wide margin, it'll be a brand new ballgame…and we can make up all sorts of possible storylines that could then happen. Maybe SAG and AFTRA will find a way to link arms, or maybe they'll be even more furious at each other and make things worse. Maybe the studios will become more militant than ever to remind those damned unions who runs this town or maybe corporate heads will step in and tell the AMPTP bargainers, "We can't have another production halt like we had with the writers. Make a deal." There are other possible ways this could go but there's not a whole lot of point to discussing them. The chances of the AFTRA deal losing by a significant percentage are about the same as the chances of John McCain carrying California or Barack Obama taking Utah.
This is all a shame because the actors in this town were primed to follow the WGA lead and stay strong, and were in an even better negotiating position. The SAG/AFTRA split was like two guys were playing one hand of poker, got dealt four aces…and then decided that each would take two of those aces and go play them in separate hands. Actually, it's worse than that because AFTRA went first and they walked into negotiations with an attitude of "Give us what you can but we don't want to strike." My above-quoted agent friend does not think AFTRA leadership was on the take but he thinks that if they had been, they couldn't have done a finer job of neutering the power of actors in this contract renewal.
There's already a sense of defeat in some crannies of the acting community…and a determination to heal wounds and plan better for the next time. A great philosopher named Berra once said, "It ain't over 'til it's over," and that's true. But it's sure starting to feel like it's over.