When last we checked in on the actors' negotiations, the Screen Actors Guild had been unable to reach an agreement with the AMPTP on a new contract, and the other actors' union, AFTRA, had begun bargaining for its new deal. The oft-buzzed expectation was that AFTRA, being a weaker union and one not inclined to fight all that hard, would settle for crummy terms and so would undermine the SAG position.
As things stand today, that script looks to be playing out as anticipated. AFTRA has sent a letter to its members (read it here) that seems to be saying, "Hey, we're working hard for you but this is tough…don't get your hopes up. We may have to give in on some things you don't like." The standout issue would seem to be the studios' demand to remove the rule whereby they must get a performer's okay to use his or her performance in other venues, most notably in online clips. A friend of mine who's closer to the situation than I am explained it this way in an e-mail…
You have a lot of irresistible forces meeting immovable objects on this issue. The producers are saying in effect, "We must have this. We are going to get it. We will keep you on strike until you die of old age if we have to but we are going to get this." The rank and file of the actors are saying, "We will not give you this, no matter how long you keep us on strike." The problem is the union leaderships. The AFTRA leadership is saying, "We will fight this but we will not go on strike." The SAG leadership is saying, "We will fight this even if means going on strike."
And of course, the problem is that here we have AFTRA negotiating before SAG.
There are other concerns on the table. Here's a link to a PDF that SAG has issued to inform its members of what those issues are. The other one most likely to be a strike-causer is the one about jurisdiction over so-called "new media." SAG won't do notably better on DVDs than the other unions have and I can't imagine the producers holding out on the one regarding Force Majeure or the actors going on strike over Product Placement.
Still, this is going to get messy. One possible ugly scenario would begin with AFTRA's board accepting some form of what the producers want regarding the use of clips, perhaps mitigated with some limitations. The proposal already concedes that excerpts involving nudity could not be used without the actor's permission. The studios could give in on a few more points (like, your image won't be used in political commercials) to make it more palatable…and then AFTRA would recommend the deal to its members for ratification. That would not be as easily rubber-stamped as these contracts usually are. For some thespians, that's a deal-killer right there…for personal reasons as much as the financial ones. At that point, you'd have actors rallying to reject the offer and the studios holding firm that they would not sit down with SAG's bargainers as long as the AFTRA deal was unresolved.
We could, in effect, have the actors' strike run by AFTRA — whose leadership seems terrified of a strike and ill-equipped to manage one — instead of by SAG, whose leadership is ready to go to the mat on this and other issues. There are additional ways this could play out, none of them pretty. Another, of course, is that AFTRA just folds and totally undermines the SAG position.
So is there going to be an actors' strike? Hard to say. A few months ago, I thought not…but the studios are playing harder ball than anyone imagined, probably because they figure the SAG-AFTRA rift has given them an opening. It may all depend on patching that rift, or at least on finding a way to make it work for the actors instead of against them. I guess I'll stick with my no-strike prediction but I must admit I'm less confident of it now than I was in April. And I'm starting to think that if there isn't, it will not be because the AMPTP decided to avoid one by being reasonable. It'll be because the actors divided and conquered themselves.