The November election in California just got more interesting. That the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, is likely to carry the state was not in doubt…but now it looks like there's also going to be an initiative to ban same-sex marriage. As you probably heard, the State Supreme Court today ruled that under the state constitution, forbidding it is unconstitutional so opposers of such will probably whip up a ballot item to put things back the way they want it.
Will it pass? I dunno. My guess is that since public sentiment is only moving in one direction on this matter, it would not pass if it was put to voters ten or even five years from now. It might pass this year. My expectation is that Conservative forces in the state will bang the drum to get the vote out for it, not because they think they can ban it forever or even for a long time…but because they want to get a certain kind of voter to the polls. That would be the kind of voter who'd be more likely to also vote for Republicans in Congressional and local races. Those voters might otherwise be staying home if, as seems likely, McCain has no chance of carrying California.
So we're in for a messy election with a lot of emotion and yelling and people who'll tell us we're all going to Hades because of the way we live. The ban might pass, probably narrowly if it does, in which case it would delay Gay Marriage a few more years. But all it will do is delay the inevitable for a few more years.