The folks who run the Oscar ceremony probably won't see it this way but they oughta hope that the Writers Guild strike — either because it's on or recently settled — makes their TV ceremony interesting. Because the nominations sure won't.
This is not a complaint about those nominations. I didn't see most of the films and have no reason to think the selections aren't reasonable. It's just that how much will America care whether Best Actor goes to Johnny Depp or Daniel Day-Lewis or one of the other guys? Some awards have a lot of emotion and passion behind them…or just curiosity as to what So-and-so may do if he or she wins or doesn't win. Remember the year George C. Scott was nominated and told them to stuff it? Remember when Roman Polanski was up for Best Director? There was even some interest last year as to whether Martin Scorcese would finally, for God's sake, get an Academy Award…and there's usually one Cinderella story that will be thrillingly completed if some gifted newcomer wins.
I don't see anything like that in the list of this year's nominees. There might be a little passion for or against Michael Moore to win again for Best Documentary…but even some of the people who loathe his very jowls were impressed with Sicko, and he might feel it was appropriate if he wins to deliver an acceptance speech about that topic and not the Iraq War. So it doesn't look like there's a lot of backstage drama in the nominations. It's just a list of good films and people who did outstanding work.
In the meantime, let's speculate on what's going to happen with the Oscars, which are about a month away…
This is a guess based on no inside info whatsoever. Various CEOs are now meeting "informally" with WGA reps, trying to iron out some matters before they sit down for formal bargaining. I'm thinking maybe the studios will make some gesture of good will or good faith towards the Guild — grant them some deal point, agree to certain ground rules for negotiating, something of the sort — in exchange for which they'll expect a show of good faith from the WGA: Grant the Oscars a waiver and get the Screen Actors Guild to encourage its members to participate. I'll further guess that if the concession by the producers is of sufficient weight, the WGA will agree.
If they can't get that done, the Academy has two choices: Barge on ahead or postpone the Oscars. They may have to make that decision pretty soon. The later they announce a postponement, the messier it'll be for everyone.