As a loyal WGA member, I wish I could report that Jay Leno's first broadcast without his writers was a total disaster. I thought his segment with Mike Huckabee was pretty lame but then politicians on talk shows usually bother me. The venue is not conducive to asking them hard questions and it's annoying to see these guys (all these guys) given the chance to present themselves as good-natured, witty chaps and not have to answer for the slimier things they've said or done.
But I thought what came before that — Jay's monologue and an unscripted Q-and-A with the audience — was entertaining enough. Leno has always been a much better ad-libber than his critics think he is and he has a great rapport with the people out front. His monologue was pretty standard Leno so I can believe he wrote it himself. I'm not as sure though that it wasn't a violation of WGA rules.
I was a lot less impressed with Conan O'Brien's show…and I say that as someone who usually likes Conan. The absence of real comedy material was felt on Leno's show but it was really felt on O'Brien's. Maybe he'll fall into a rhythm but it just seemed like he wasn't sure what he was there to do…play off the absence of written material or move past it. He and Bob Saget didn't seem to have much to say to one another after they got past the strike talk.
Letterman was Letterman. I like the guy but I don't always like his show, especially when it feels like I've seen it before. I was surprised at how totally he fell back into the old ennui and even Robin Williams couldn't do much the change the energy level. (The problem with Williams as a guest on any talk show is that he does what he does and the host could go out for a sandwich while he does it.) I really wish Dave could get back to that time when you tuned him in wondering, "What's he going to do tonight?" Maybe I set myself up for disappointment by thinking he'd seize on this opportunity to do something he hadn't done a hundred times before.
Craig Ferguson is being TiVoed at this very moment but I probably won't watch him until tomorrow.
All in all, nothing really changed much so I'm inclined to think the ratings won't, at least after a day or two. If Letterman can get substantially better guests now that Jay's being picketed and he isn't, that might give The Late Show an advantage. But pretty much everything I think has made a majority of viewers pick Jay over Dave is still intact. I'll be surprised if the numbers show much switchover.