This whole thing with the strike is getting odder and more fraught with possible scenarios. David Letterman's company is going to seek an interim deal with the WGA that would allow its writers to go back to work and therefore, Late Show (and Craig Ferguson's show) to resume. CBS has issued a statement that says — well, here: Read it for yourself…
Regarding David Letterman's company, Worldwide Pants, seeking an interim agreement with the WGA: We respect the intent of Worldwide Pants to serve the interests of its independent production company and its employees by seeking this interim agreement with the WGA. However, this development should not confuse the fact that CBS remains unified with the AMPTP, and committed to working with the member companies to reach a fair and reasonable agreement with the WGA that positions everyone in our industry for success in a rapidly changing marketplace.
Nothing in there about CBS stopping Worldwide Pants from making a deal. That was not the way the network played it in past strikes. In '88, a lot of companies in a position comparable to Letterman's wanted to sign interim deals with the WGA and their networks stopped them. (By the way: I don't know how interim deals will work this time but in the past, they were "favored nations" contracts. The company signs with the WGA on the WGA's terms and then, whenever a deal gets struck with the AMPTP, the company can elect to switch to its terms, which presumably will be more favorable.)
Letterman, of course, doesn't have to worry about some of the "deal killer" issues that are presently said to be an obstacle to a WGA/AMPTP settlement. He doesn't produce any "reality" shows. He doesn't produce any cartoons. Excerpts from his shows do stream on the Internet via the CBS site but that could be curtailed or kept within a window that the WGA would agree was promotional. There are, as yet, no DVDs of old episodes of Dave's show. So it's hard to imagine they won't be able to make a workable interim deal.
Meanwhile, NBC is telling reporters that on Monday, it will announce the return of The Tonight Show and Late Night in new episodes, possibly January 7. (One source told me it may be even sooner than that.) Since those shows are produced by NBC, the network probably can't and won't make interim deals for them so if Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien elect to go back, they'll be crossing picket lines and working without their writing staffs. So far, no one has said for certain that Jay and Conan will do that, which leads me to suspect that's being argued about right now. It certainly puts those guys in an awkward, perhaps dangerous position. Apart from the obvious anger they'll feel from the Hollywood community — look at what's been directed towards Ellen DeGeneres and Carson Daly — there's the question of whether major stars will want to be a part of those shows.
Just taking Leno's situation, it sounds like lose/lose. He'll be out there doing a limited version of his show — hampered by a lack of writers and probably of top name guests — against Letterman with his full show and a lot of good will. If Jay does his usual long monologue, he'll be accused of employing scabs. If he doesn't do it, he'll lose his most valuable segment. His show has already taken a lot of hits from critics and doing it without writers will just give them fresh ammo to go after him again. And of course, he'll be working to save a program that NBC has already arranged to take away from him. About the only thing that may make him happy is not having to pay the staff out of his own pocket…which I thought was kind of a raw deal, the way he was pressured into it. (Hollywood is full of very wealthy people who are not paying their staffs during the strike, and no one faults them for it. And some of those people, unlike Leno, own their shows and are the actual employers.)
But the big question is what Letterman signing an interim deal will do to the strike situation. Will Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert follow? Will other shows? Is it just Dave who has enough clout that his network is not going to do what they've all done in the past and blocked interim deals? If Dave goes back on and starts clobbering Jay, will that add pressure to NBC to push for a quicker settlement? We're in uncharted territory here so it's gonna be interesting.