So the strike starts Sunday at one minute past Midnight. What does that mean? A feverish weekend for some writers to finish up certain scripts and then things start shutting down.
One of the sometimes-frustrating parts of a WGA strike is that its effects are immediately felt in some quarters and not in others. Some shows will shut down right away. Others will continue to film or tape for a few weeks. At some point in those few weeks, the Producers will be out there, citing the programs and movies that are still in production, selling press stories that say, "Gee, we're not being hurt very much." But of course, even as they're saying that, execs are meeting to discuss what they'll do in two weeks or three or whenever the backlog runs out. (One thing to keep in mind is that most of the media is controlled by companies we're striking. If some development in this story is very bad for the Producers, how fairly do we think it will be reported on a channel owned by Disney or in a magazine owned by Rupert Murdoch?)
I don't know why the Guild isn't calling the strike today. Perhaps they feel that given the timing of certain TV shows, it's less awkward for us not to try and pull the writers off them. Letterman and Leno have tonight's shows all written. Both are loyal WGA members who apparently will not do their shows, with or without their writing staffs, until the strike is resolved. Why put those guys in the position of having to decide whether or not to perform their "host" duties tonight? Tomorrow night's Saturday Night Live is probably far enough along that it could go forward without the writers…so its producers and actors who are also WGA members would be placed in an uncomfortable position. These are all shows we can shut down quickly enough. We don't have to make it difficult for our members there.
Also, waiting until Sunday night puts the ball in the Producers' court. Are they prepared to make a big leap in their positions to ward off a work stoppage? They probably aren't but just in case they are, maybe it's not a bad idea to give them time to make that leap.
It's hard to make these determinations from outside. There are official negotiations but there are also "back channel" and sidebar and informal conversations. From those, our leaders get a sense of how to play this. They can easily be wrong but it doesn't hurt to remember that they're making these kinds of judgments based on information that's unavailable to the rest of us.
I have to get back to work on a project. (Fortunately for me, I have several that don't fall under WGA jurisdiction, though I wish they did.) But I did want to address one other matter: The question of how long the strike will last.
Nobody knows. Nick Counter, the mouthpiece for the Producers, doesn't know. Patric Verrone, President of the WGA, doesn't know. And if those guys don't know, surely the guesses you and I make aren't good for a whole lot. That's actually one of the more interesting/frightening parts of a strike. If either side knew for certain it would be X number of days, they could plan their lives much more efficiently than they now must plan. I believe this has the potential to be a very long strike. The Writers certainly are not going to fold quickly enough to make it anything less.
So if you see someone say it's going to be six days or six weeks or six months, just remember: That's only a wild guess.
The real answer is that it will depend on the answer to this question: The Producers have taken the hard-line position that they will not discuss an increase in DVD and new media payments…and they will not address other issues until that one's off the table. How long will it take them to back off that position? You cannot begin to assess how long the strike will last unless you can answer that. And not only can you not answer that at this moment, I'd be very surprised if Nick Counter could. But he'd better figure it out soon.