David Jobe writes to ask little ol' me…
I've been following your entries on the (potentially) upcoming WGA strike with great interest. I'd be curious to know your thoughts on what Nikki Finke is reporting on her blog about the likelihood of and timing for the strike, especially with regards to how accurate you think her information is. Her blog purports to represent the studios' point of view, and I'm wondering how accurate you think it is.
Fairly accurate, I think, if you take it as what the studio heads want us to believe. In labor wars, one's public posture is always calibrated for effect. That applies to all sides in all negotiations. I don't buy that anyone running a network really "welcome[s] a strike because they believe the 2007/2008 TV season is dead on arrival anyway" or that they'd say that even if it was true. If you think your schedule's a catastrophe, the more prudent position is to moan, "We had some potential hits but that %@#&% Writers Guild Strike (or the threat, thereof) killed us."
The most interesting line in that piece is where Les Moonves said, "I'm not concerned about the state of CBS. I'm a bit concerned about the state of network television generally." Some others in comparable positions to his might not be that perturbed if the major networks lost still more market share to HBO, Showtime and Basic Cable, as well as home video and gaming. That's because those people may not figure to be in the network teevee business much longer. But Mooves just reupped his contract and ain't goin' nowhere, so he may be sitting there, thinking of how those other forms of entertainment got a huge boost from the '88 WGA Strike. No one can ever calculate what the studios lost that year but it was probably greater than any dollar estimate you've seen. Not meeting the WGA's rather modest demands that year was far from cost-effective. It actually wounded the networks' entire business because a lot of loyal network TV viewers found other interests in life and never returned…at least not with the same loyalty.
In any case, I don't believe the Producers are confident that they can get through a long WGA strike on "reality" shows and games. They'll say they are but they've got to be terrified of more viewers discovering they can amuse themselves without the likes of CSI:Wherever and Two and a Half Men.
The intriguing thing touched upon in that article is the question of when we'd strike if we strike. The WGA Leadership could call a walkout at any time after November 1 if no deal is in place then. Some people have suggested that we'd continue working, sans contract, until such time as the Screen Actors Guild pact was up, at which time we'd link arms with them, sing a few choruses of "Kumbaya" and present a united front. I consider that scenario highly unlikely. The SAG deal isn't up until June 30, 2008 and that's a long time from now, plus the Producers would have to be suicidal to allow such a marriage to occur…or even to seem possible since it would embolden both sides. Besides, a WGA-SAG partnership could ultimately be a rocky one, anyway. It would be very easy for the AMPTP to float proposals that would screw one union at the expense of the other, thereby driving a wedge.
I'm thinking that if we're working without a deal into December, Management will set a lockout deadline and say, "If the WGA doesn't accept our current proposal by X date, we withdraw it and your work and paychecks stop." Everyone hopes, of course, it will not come to that.
I have no idea what's on the minds of the WGA leadership in terms of timetable, nor do I know their thinking about Interim Deals. What those are are "favored nations" deals we make during a strike with studios (mostly independents) who are willing to sign. Writers can go back to work at those companies and then, when the final big contract is signed, the studios that signed interim agreements can opt for its terms. These deals are generally controversial from our side, both for strategic reasons and because some writers like the idea of everyone hanging together. They're generally frowned upon by the majors and they pressure the smaller producers not to go for them.
Will that be part of our battle plan? I have no idea. But you're going to hear a lot about them as a strike grows more likely. And it will grow more likely.