We're hearing nothing too positive about the status of negotiations between the AMPTP and the WGA regarding a new contract…and before I get into that, I'd like to make two points. One is that the folks inside the WGA — the Negotiating Committee, the officers, the staff, etc. — have told me nothing. Anything posted here is me speculating based on past histories and the current lack of good news. In situations like this, it's not too pessimistic to assume that a dearth of good news is because there ain't any.
Second point: Lies and bogus stories will be told. That is as certain as anything can be certain. In every WGA strike I've lived through — which is what now? A hundred and fifty? — there have been rumors, often attributed to good sources, that have proven utterly and wholly false. Expect them. Count on them. I'll toss out one example…
A few days into the '88 strike, a very prominent writer-producer — a man with more Emmys than toes — told me that the WGA was doomed because the studios, prepping for our walkout, had secretly filmed or taped plenty of shows to keep them going in our absence. Not only that, he told me the names, premises and cast lists of a couple. One starring Jack Klugman, he said, had taped 13 wonderful episodes and there was some hour-long adventure show that was an eighties' spin on Mission: Impossible [CORRECTION: See here.] that had eight episodes in the can and a whole pile of scripts ready to film. The amount of detail he had made it all seem very credible, as did the fact that this was a very honest, successful writer-producer…but none of these shows were ever seen, during the strike or after. Why? Because they never existed. Someone had made up a phony story and this guy had fallen for it and was passing it along.
One other point: At some stage, you'll probably start hearing about Binding Arbitration: This side has proposed Binding Arbitration. That side has refused Binding Arbitration. Talk like that. When tensions are high and folks are looking for a magic genie to end the madness, they often seize on Binding Arbitration as the fairy dust that can make everything right. But it can't. Not in a contract negotiation of this sort. In order to submit a dispute to Binding Arbitration, the two parties that can't come to an agreement have to agree on the rules of Binding Arbitration. The Binding Arbitrators don't just come in and carve up the baby based on nothing. Arbitrators enforce rules and if two sides are at an impasse, it's highly unlikely that either side would consent to rules that might yield a decision that went against them. So just forget about that idea.
Anyway, the sense I'm getting is that the Producers are still sticking with the idea that the business is hurting and that Writers (and next year, Actors and Directors) simply have to take less. At the same time, the Writers are sticking with the principle that they will not accept rollbacks; won't even accept a status quo deal that does not address several big concerns like New Technologies and Expanded Jurisdiction. So right there, you have all you need for a 24-Karat, accept-no-substitutes Writers Guild Strike.
It would be nice to think the Producers are executing a major fakeout here; that they're signalling that their Final Offer will be really, really bad so it will seem more acceptable when it turns out to only be really bad. That would still probably trigger a strike but maybe not as nasty a strike as the really, really bad offer. I'm afraid though we're in for the latter.
The contract expires Wednesday. Thursday evening, the WGA will convene a huge membership meeting at a location to be determined. If you're a member, watch for the announcement.