As the Writers Guild attempts to negotiate a new contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, I'm going to report here occasionally on what's happening and I'll attempt to reduce it to simple terms.
The old contract expires October 31 and both sides would dearly love to negotiate a new deal before that happens. So far, what's happened is that the WGA has come forth with a list of proposed increases and new benefits…and the Producers have said, "No, you can't have any of that" and have instead presented a long list of rollbacks and rate cuts that they want us to accept.
The WGA is now asking its members for a Strike Authorization vote that will allow our leaders to call a walkout on October 31 or at any time thereafter if they believe the negotiations have hit an impasse. Ballots are due October 18 and the size of the vote (and the "buzz" within the industry) will presumably have some impact on the bargaining. There will undoubtedly be a sizeable majority voting to authorize but by what margin? And how many members will even return ballots at all? A tepid strike vote will embolden the Producers. A strong vote will add clout to the WGA side.
At this point, there are a number of possible scenarios but the most likely would be one of these two…
1. If the Producers perceive that the resolve is there for a long, serious WGA resistance, there will be enough movement in their offer to keep talks going past October 31. We keep working. They keep talking. I don't think it's possible for the two sides to come to a happy compromise without some grenades being hurled but it's not impossible. More likely, alas, is Scenario #2…
2. Just before Midnight on Contract Expiration Date — perhaps only an hour or two before the old pact expires — the Producers will present what they will term their Absolutely Final Offer. They will tell the press that the business is hurting; that they have gone as far as they can possibly go in an effort to prevent a strike and that the Writers are being unrealistic and reckless to think that they can get another nickel. We will point out that the same studio execs who say there's no more money are elsewhere bragging about record profits and taking home seven, eight and even nine figure annual salaries. And then we'll threaten to strike and they'll threaten to lock us out.
Will there be a strike? I think so, and I don't think it will be a brief one. The Producers are acutely aware that they will have to negotiate next year with the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild, and that any increases won by the WGA will be multiplied by similar concessions to those unions. To the extent they do have to improve terms for the WGA, they'll look for ways to make those gains non-precedential; to configure them in ways that will not benefit the other guilds. But you can only do so much of that. For the most part, the AMPTP knows that every dollar they give us means another dollar they'll wind up giving the Directors in some form…and because there are more actors on any project than there are Writers or Directors, it usually means three or four dollars to the Screen Actors Guild.
One small, hopeful sign is that the WGA is taking its Strike Authorization vote before the Producers could present an Absolutely Final Offer. In the past, that sometimes has not happened so the AMPTP has drastically underestimated the resolve of the WGA members and has gotten stuck with an Absolutely Final Offer that they (The Producers) later wish had been higher. For both internal reasons — the various employers who comprise the AMPTP have to all agree on any offer — and because they don't want to create the precedent of raising offers too much — they have trouble moving off an Absolutely Final Offer. The WGA strike in '88 was as long as it was, in part because the Producers were stuck with a too-low offer out on the table. We all hope they won't make the same mistake again but they probably will.
Personally, I think the whole process is silly and non-constructive, and that they should pitch the whole thing and bring in Howie Mandel and twenty-six models with briefcases…but the game is played the way the game is played, even to the detriment of both sides. So stay tuned.