At the 1972 Democratic Convention, there were a number of heartbreaking moments — in every sense that the heart can break — but one that I recall especially was a big, phony salute to Hubert Humphrey. It was not phony in that the people saluting him didn't like or admire the guy. What was phony were the words used and the evasion of what everyone knew it was all about. Ostensibly, it was just a salute to Hubert H. and a thanks for all he'd done for his country and party, not necessarily in that order. But everyone knew what it was about. George McGovern was getting the nomination, Humphrey wasn't, and Hubert would be too old to run next time.
Actually, Humphrey wasn't that old. He was 61 in 1972 so if he'd run in '76, he would have been 65. That was the same age as James Buchanan when he was elected but he was one of our worst presidents ever…and anyway, that was in quite another era. Humphrey, due in whole or part to illness, was an old 61. He died in early '78. A few years later, Ronald Reagan was elected to the presidency at the age of 69 but he didn't seem that old…at least, not until near the end. I suspect even some people who loved Reagan in that job would now say he was too old, at least for two terms.
The '72 salute to Humphrey had as its unspoken message that he always seemed to his fans as a man who was destined to be president, like he'd almost earned the job/honor in every way save for being elected — and even then, he came darn close to that in '68. The whole tribute to him had the air of a consolation prize; like the party was saying, "Thanks for all your hard work, Hubert. We all agree you should have been president but somehow it just didn't work out that way."
I bring this up now for a reason…
I don't think John McCain is going to get the Republican nomination. Granted, it's not impossible but it sure doesn't look to be going his way.
McCain is 71. If he won, he'd be the oldest president we've ever had. I don't think that disqualifies him from the job but it almost certainly means that if he doesn't get it this time, he ain't never going to get it. To a lot of people, including many who won't vote for him, he looks like a guy who's earned the job the way Humphrey had earned it. Think what you will of the guy (and I'm sure disappointed by him in many ways), McCain has worked his ass off in public life and probably foregone much more lucrative opportunities in the private sector. That's above and beyond being a war hero and a man who, at various points, was widely respected even by his opponents. Unlike Humphrey though, he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to bow out gracefully and vanish into obscurity.
This is not so much a prediction as a vague feeling. Looking at those ten G.O.P. hopefuls in the debate the other night, I couldn't help thinking that one of these things is not like the others. Four or five of those guys have about as much chance at the nomination this year as I do and can't seriously be thinking they have a real shot at it. All but one of them have to be thinking that at worst, they're laying groundwork for a run in 2012, which might even be a much better year to be a Republican candidate for President. For the one — McCain — it's now or never.
You have to wonder if he'll support someone else as the Republican nominee or even go quietly into the night. Lately, there have been news stories (like this one) of the fabled McCain temper flaring up. It's not hard to imagine him blasting the G.O.P. establishment and/or maybe mounting a third-party effort. He sure doesn't strike me as a guy who's happy with some of the things he's had to say lately, kissing the butt of the right-wing base to try and get their support. And the worst part of that is that it doesn't even seem to be working.
Like I said, this isn't a prediction. It's just kind of a subtext I'm watching. If and when the nomination is out of McCain's grasp, will he explode? If not, what's to stop him? Is he going to support a nominee who advocates "enhanced interrogation techniques" and other fancy euphemisms for torture? Is there a role the Republicans can find for him that will keep him and his supporters in the fold? McCain's whole stature in politics for some time has been based on the fact that he was perceived as a highly-possible occupant of the Oval Office. Once that's taken away from him, he becomes highly irrelevant and I somehow don't see him accepting that; not without a fight. Do you?