Half the political blogs I'm reading this morning are linking to or reposting the above poll and noting how many people say they would not vote for an Atheist. That may be so but it may also be because the question is so overwhelmingly hypothetical. The American people have never been confronted with an Atheist who seems otherwise qualified for the office. On the question of whether they'd vote for a woman, they can think about Hillary or Elizabeth Dole or Condoleeza Rice or any of several ladies who've become mayors or governors or representatives, and say, "Hmm…some of those, I could vote for." Someone might not be inclined to vote for any specific woman but it usually isn't the gender that's the reason. I don't think anyone will not vote for Hillary Clinton just because she's a she. Even if that bothers them, they'll find another justification.
I also think there's something silly about polls that ask you to decide your vote in a vacuum. We can all imagine an alternative so loathsome that people who say they wouldn't vote for a Jewish or gay or Black or whatever candidate would hold their noses and vote for the Jew, the gay, the Black, the whatever. In this country, we rarely vote for someone. We vote against someone or we vote for the least objectionable of two alternatives. In the Bush-Kerry election, I'd bet at least 70% of all the voters on both sides wished they'd had someone better to vote for than the guy they had to select.
But none of this is why I posted the above. What caught my interest is that everyone is discussing how voters feel about blacks or gays or Atheists or women…but no one is noticing that question in there about being 72 years old. If we believe this poll, 42% of the country wouldn't vote for someone who's 72 years old…and I'm assuming that means older candidates would do even less well.
Well, John McCain is 71 years old. In the next presidential election, he'll be 72.
I don't think 42% of this country would decline to vote for John McCain because of his age. They might refuse to vote for him because of his position on the Iraq War or his embrace of the Religious Right or his stance on abortion or any number of other reasons. But his age? I don't believe for a minute that would matter to anyone unless, maybe, they otherwise had a microscopic preference for him over his opponent. That never happens in this country.
For the record, Ronald Reagan was 69 when he ran for president in 1980. He was 73 when he won a second term. Bob Dole was 73 when he ran in 1996 but that's not the reason he lost.