The next presidential election is 704 days away. Isn't it a little early to be talking about frontrunners and saying things like, "It's Obama's to lose" and "Nobody can stop Hillary"? Unless Dick Cheney does something crazy like running or quitting, we won't even have an incumbent on the ticket in 2008…and some people think the nominees are all but certain?
Incumbents aside, when was the last time someone had a near-lock on the nomination 700 days before it was time to vote? More important, when was the first time that someone's frontrunner status that far in advance was even relevant once the primaries started? (Bill Clinton, let's remember, lost his early primary contests.) Candidates like this kind of talk because it's never too early to start raising funds. Reporters like it because it gives them something to write about and they can make predictions that no one will remember when things turn out otherwise. But the rest of us don't have to fall for it.
If you stuck a gun in my ribs and made me predict who'll be the Democratic ticket in 2008, I'd say it will be Al Gore. His slogan will be, "Re-elect Al Gore" and his running mate will be either Barack Obama or Howard Dean. On what do I base this? Same thing as everyone who's making predictions these days: Almost nothing.