We now bring you a link to an article on the state of the Late Night Wars which, thank goodness, do not involve Henry Kissinger. The piece notes — correctly, according to my sources — that NBC is clamoring to keep Jay Leno "in the family" when he turns The Tonight Show over to Conan O'Brien in 2009. I doubt Leno would take an offer to stay in late night on ABC or Fox, but I have no doubt he'll have huge sums of cash dangled at him to do so. (It's funny to imagine him winding up at ABC as a lead-in to Jimmy Kimmel, given how much Kimmel has expressed his contempt for Leno.)
I think the piece overestimates how much of the Leno/O'Brien deal was due to the involved parties wanting to avoid the nastiness of the Leno/Letterman skirmish. Can anyone suggest a similar nasty scenario that might have ensued if Leno had stayed on? I sure can't. What I think they were trying to avoid was a situation where O'Brien went to ABC or Fox or syndication and competed head-on with Dave and Jay. I suspect someone at the time thought Jay's star was starting to fade and that he might not endure against Conan…but now it's two years later, Leno's ratings are rock solid…and NBC has to be more worried about Jay being on a competing network. Leno's history in late night has been littered with prominent industry pundits — at the networks and advertising agencies — predicting his failure. Every single one of those predictions has proven wrong and I see no reason to start betting against him now.
They're probably also worried about the potential embarrassment if Conan's ratings in that slot are significantly below Jay's…which they could well be, especially if Fox, ABC or some other player mounts a serious challenge then and there. It could also hurt Conan if they can't find the right star to go into the 12:35 time slot. Odd that we've heard absolutely nothing about who that might be, other than that it probably won't be Carson Daly. NBC must have some names in consideration by now and they must be quietly making moves to ensure that their candidates don't all become unavailable before then. But even performers who might be on that list haven't leaked to the press that they're up for the gig. During the period before Conan was selected to follow Jay, half the comedians in town were telling anyone who'd spread the word that they had a near-certain lock on the job. I wonder why no one's leaking that to the press now in hopes of making it happen.