Last night, on an episode that remains as-yet-unwatched on my TiVo, David Letterman had Oprah Winfrey on as a guest. Oprah had told interviewers for some time that she'd never set foot on the Letterman stage again…a vow she kept until it seemed like a good way to promote her new musical, which is playing a block from where Dave tapes. I gather from this morn's Internet chatter that the event was rife with polite conversation, whereas some viewers were hoping for The Morton Downey Jr. Show to erupt. I'll watch it later.
What I wanted to mention now is that the early ratings suggest Dave got a monster tune-in — one of his highest-rated shows ever, if not the highest. That was expected…and good for Dave. Putting on shows that people want to watch is what the game is all about. What wasn't expected was Leno's rating. In an article last week, TV critic Tom Shales predicted, "Leno might as well air a rerun. Only the TiVo machines will be watching." This morning's Nielsens say otherwise. Jay got his usual Thursday night rating, which ordinarily would beat Dave by a point or so. Just as many people as ever were watching him. There were just more watching Dave and Oprah kiss and make up.
A friend of mine who analyzes ratings for a living told me some time ago that we are long past the point where anyone is pondering if they prefer Dave over Jay or Jay over Dave. "There are no Undecideds in this election," is how he put it. There are those who opt for Jay, those who prefer Dave, and those who can go either way, depending on the guest list. This last group, he said, is smaller than you'd think.
Jay has been consistently winning in the ratings for two reasons, only one of which is that his partisans are greater in number. The other is that they tune in more often and stick around longer. The Jay fans watch 4-5 times a week and are more likely to stay 'til the end of the show. The Dave fans watch 3-4 times a week and tend to go to bed or check out HBO before that show is over. That's an oversimplification but the principle is correct, at least for average nights. On an "event" night — Dave returns from heart surgery, Dave has on Hillary Clinton, Jay has Jerry Seinfeld after the last Seinfeld airs, etc. — all of that host's regular viewers tune in at once, plus a lot of viewers who rarely watch either late night show. Last night, Dave stole away a few of those who normally watch Jay but not enough that no one was watching Leno. Mostly, all the folks who like Dave but who feel his show has gotten repetitive thought, "Ah, tonight it'll be different." So they watched, and you also had the folks who ordinarily don't care about late night. They just thought something eventful might occur. Add in the Oprah fans who watched just because they love her and you have a huge rating…but not at Leno's expense. Tonight, Dave has on Luke Wilson and a rodeo champ, Jay welcomes Ebert and Roeper plus Tyra Banks, and things return to normal.
Lots of people remember that the first time Leno passed Letterman in the ratings was the night Hugh Grant came on The Tonight Show for his first public appearance after being arrested with a hooker. Some of Dave's fiercest loyalists still try to insist that Jay's 10+ year dominance in the ratings is only due to that; like America was tricked into watching that one night and all their remotes got stuck. In truth, Jay was gaining on Dave in the weeks before and would have passed him soon, even without Grant. His show had a remarkable bounce-back after trailing Letterman for a while and has since demonstrated great, unacknowledged strength. Even the excuse that he was just beating Dave because NBC had a stronger prime-time line-up has since collapsed now that the Peacock Number is flirting with fourth place and Jay still wins.
Personally, as I've said before, I think both shows could and should be a lot better and less prone to recycling. If the right host were on ABC opposite them, I think both Dave and Jay would be in a fair amount of trouble and might have to ditch some of their easy, dependable bits and put in a few more hours a week. But the Letterman fan who writes me every month to try and convince me that Dave is about to be Numero Uno again is wasting as much bandwidth as the people who tell me I've won the International Lotto and just have to send my bank account number in order to collect millions. Dave will win nights when the show is all about a spectacular guest or a monumental event in The Life of Letterman. But Jay wins any night that's just about Dave and Paul playing "Will It Float?"