A couple of folks have written to ask if, given these "bad news for TiVo" articles I keep pointing out, I think our beloved Personal Video Recorders are doomed…and if so, what that means for their owners. Despite the fact that the company has yet to post a profit, I don't think the demise of TiVo is imminent. The main threat to its existence probably comes from competition. It is quite possible that some other company will come along, introduce a superior PVR and take over the niche that TiVo has created. Even now, TiVo is suffering somewhat from the rise of PVRs that come as part of your basic service when you subscribe to digital cable TV in your area. These machines are not better than TiVo, except in the sense that they more easily interface with a person's TV source…but they're gobbling up a lot of potential TiVo customers.
Some of the problems facing TiVo — like the apparent need to allow for copy-protection schemes on pay-per-view programming — will presumably affect competitors, so they won't doom TiVo. What will is competition if they don't improve their product at a better clip. It's pretty easy to imagine all sorts of upscale features that could be in a PVR…and will be, one of these days. Just as Beta foolishly allowed VHS to take the lead in consumer-friendly features, TiVo may be pioneering a marketplace and fighting all obstacles to clear the way for the company that's going to put them out of business.
As I said, I don't see this happening soon, if ever. But every so often, someone writes to inquire what we do with our TiVos if the TiVo company goes under and no longer offers the programming guides. The answer is that someone else will. TiVo technicians have quietly leaked word to the electronics community that if they crash and burn, the company will release the source codes that will make it easy for someone else to offer a TiVo Data Subscription Service. Those of us with lifetime contracts will lose out because we'll have to pay someone else for the info that is now downloaded every day or so to our TiVos…but the machines will still function.
Of course, it may not come to that. TiVo may yet thrive. Before the year is out, they're supposed to implement the "TiVo to Go" feature, which will enable us — with some restrictions — to transfer shows from our TiVos to our computers for burning to DVD. It's a little slow in coming but it's a step towards staying ahead of potential rivals. And of course, if TiVo does cease operations, it may be because they've been elbowed aside by a much better PVR, one we'll all rush to purchase. So we won't mind the loss of TiVo very much.
I hope it doesn't come to that. I've been a TiVo owner almost since the day they introduced them. The ones I now own are, I think, my fifth, sixth and seventh machines, and I've probably been directly or indirectly responsible for at least two dozen friends buying TiVos after they saw mine…to say nothing of the purchasers I've inspired on my website. Still, brand loyalty doesn't mean much in the age of technology. I'd like to see them upgrade their product so I don't have to forsake my beloved TiVo service…but really, I want to see even better Personal Video Recorders. I know they're out there, someplace. It's just a question of what company will make them.